Market context layer for autonomous AI agents. Regime, risk, narrative & scenario state — 4× daily, permanently archived, with transparent source trails.
Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 43.3/100 (MODERATE).
The divergence between digital assets and chip-heavy tech is the dominant narrative thread heading into tomorrow. Watch whether crypto inflows sustain and whether semiconductor weakness finds a flo…
ETH: $1,703 — 1d:IGNITION · 4h:IGNITION. SOL: $80.70 — 1d:IGNITION · 4h:IGNITION. Crypto sentiment: 21 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 16) (rising).
The divergence between cyclical weakness and defensive strength is the defining tension to watch. BTC at $61,359, above $60K. Crypto sentiment: 21 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 16) (rising). Equity sentime…
1010 of 1031 predictions scored against actual prices across 13 tracked tickers. Top by volume:
Brier score: mean of (predicted probability − actual outcome)² across 1017 scored scenario predictions. Lower is better. Beats random-guess baseline (0.25) by 41.4%.
Each row: where we predicted N% probability, how often did the scenario actually hit? Drift = observed − predicted (closer to 0 = better calibrated).
| Predicted probability | n | Predicted (mean) | Observed | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 141 | 16.6% | 38.7% | +22.1pp |
| 20-40% | 635 | 30.7% | 35.0% | +4.3pp |
| 40-60% | 241 | 49.1% | 31.7% | -17.4pp |