AgentCanary/The Record
The Record · Live Archive

Market intelligence on the record.

Decision-grade market intelligence for autonomous AI agents. Regime classifications, risk scores, narrative momentum, and public track-record-verified predictions — 4× daily, permanently archived.

Latest · May 20, 2026 · Wednesday

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Track Record · 72h evaluation

Per-asset hit rate.

596 of 599 predictions scored against actual prices across 13 tracked tickers. Top by volume:

Ticker Tracked Hit Partial Miss Hit rate
SPY 125 11 53 61 9%
BTC 119 29 39 51 24%
OIL 81 29 25 27 36%
TLT 71 9 30 32 13%
QQQ 52 10 16 26 19%
VIX 47 12 14 19 27%
DXY 40 1 19 19 3%
GLD 27 9 9 9 33%
ETH 20 5 7 8 25%
GOLD 10 2 5 3 20%
Track Record · Calibration

How well do probabilities match outcomes?

Brier score: mean of (predicted probability − actual outcome)² across 603 scored scenario predictions. Lower is better. Beats random-guess baseline (0.25) by 35.2%.

0.162
Mean Brier · 603 predictions
A
0.178
n=211
B
0.164
n=209
C
0.141
n=183

Reliability — predicted vs observed

Each row: where we predicted N% probability, how often did the scenario actually hit? Drift = observed − predicted (closer to 0 = better calibrated).

Predicted probability n Predicted (mean) Observed Drift
0-20% 120 16.5% 39.2% +22.7pp
20-40% 305 29.5% 38.9% +9.4pp
40-60% 178 49.9% 36.5% -13.4pp
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