Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 408.4M bbl, refinery 96.6%, SPR 326M.
MACRO RADAR · July 4, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 83.3/100 · Composite 43.3
Risk Gauge: 83.3/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 43.3/100 (MODERATE).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 83.3/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 43.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.66T (YoY -3.01%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 274bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 17)
- BTC
- $62,484
- ETH
- $1,748
Crypto
BTC: $62,484 · ETH: $1,748 · SOL: $82.16 Crypto sentiment: 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 17) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.66T (YoY -3.01%) — fed $6.72T · ecb $6.98T · boj $3.96T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 274bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.27 (+1.3% 30d, UP — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 408.4M bbl, refinery 96.6%, SPR 326M.
Last US Session Prices
SPY -0.3% | QQQ -3.2% | VIX -2.1% | TLT -1.1% | DXY -0.5% | OIL +0.3%
Last US Session Moves
▼ SOXX: -11.6% ▼ EWY: -10.8% ▼ SMH: -9.7% ▼ XLK: -5.2% ▲ RTX: +5.0% ▲ XLF: +3.8%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4124 (Y)
Next US Session Setup
The overnight setup for the next US session is defensive-heavy: financials and healthcare are absorbing rotation while semiconductors and tech face meaningful headwinds into the open. Watch whether the defensive bid holds or fades once US cash markets open. Crypto's relative resilience is a data point worth tracking but does not offset the equity sector signal. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice