MACRO RADAR — Jul 1
Risk 100/100 · 6 movers
▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT
Pre-market brief — tradfi data reflects Tue 2026-06-30 close. Crypto data is live.
MACRO RADAR — Jul 1, 2026
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MACRO OVERVIEW
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION.
Composite Risk: 49.8/100 (ELEVATED).
CRYPTO
BTC: $58,994 · ETH: $1,584 · SOL: $74.71
Crypto sentiment: 11 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 14) (falling).
LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
Global CB Liquidity: $17.82T (YoY -2.69%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $6.98T · boj $4.11T
US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL
BDRY: $11.82 (-8.0% 30d, UP — SOFTENING).
Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
KEY PRICES
SPY +2.4% | QQQ +4.2% | VIX -6.8% | TLT -1.1% | DXY +0.2% | OIL -1.4%
OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE
▲ SOXX: +8.6%
▲ SMH: +7.2%
▼ VIX: -6.8%
▲ BOTZ: +5.4%
▲ XLK: +5.2%
▼ WPP: -4.6%
HEGEMONY SNAPBACK
1.5/6 — WATCH
USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4015 (Y)
NOTABLE Z-SCORES
[-] 10Y Treasury: -1.98σ
[+] HY Credit Spread: +1.91σ
[-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.84σ
[-] 30Y Treasury: -1.69σ
[-] Silver: -1.51σ
US OPEN SETUP
Overnight risk-on momentum out of Asia and Europe sets up a constructive US open for growth and semiconductor exposure. The defensives selloff confirms genuine rotation rather than a defensive hedge — lean into the growth trade but stay alert to whether crypto sustains or fades the move, as a divergence there would be an early warning of fading risk appetite heading into the session.
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