MACRO RADAR — Jul 4
Risk 83/100 · 6 movers
▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT
Weekend brief — tradfi data reflects Fri 2026-07-03 close. Crypto data is live.
MACRO RADAR — Jul 4, 2026
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MACRO OVERVIEW
Risk Gauge: 83.3/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION.
Composite Risk: 43.3/100 (MODERATE).
CRYPTO
BTC: $62,484 · ETH: $1,748 · SOL: $82.16
Crypto sentiment: 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 17) (rising).
LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
Global CB Liquidity: $17.66T (YoY -3.01%) — fed $6.72T · ecb $6.98T · boj $3.96T
US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
HY Credit Spreads: 274bps NORMAL
BDRY: $12.27 (+1.3% 30d, UP — STABLE_SHIPPING).
Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 408.4M bbl, refinery 96.6%, SPR 326M.
LAST US SESSION PRICES
SPY -0.3% | QQQ -3.2% | VIX -2.1% | TLT -1.1% | DXY -0.5% | OIL +0.3%
LAST US SESSION MOVES
▼ SOXX: -11.6%
▼ EWY: -10.8%
▼ SMH: -9.7%
▼ XLK: -5.2%
▲ RTX: +5.0%
▲ XLF: +3.8%
HEGEMONY SNAPBACK
1.5/6 — WATCH
USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4124 (Y)
NEXT US SESSION SETUP
The overnight setup for the next US session is defensive-heavy: financials and healthcare are absorbing rotation while semiconductors and tech face meaningful headwinds into the open. Watch whether the defensive bid holds or fades once US cash markets open. Crypto's relative resilience is a data point worth tracking but does not offset the equity sector signal.
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