Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 25, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 72.1/100 · Composite 39.5
Risk Gauge: 72.1/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 39.5/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 33/100 (MODERATE). Top: Russia-Ukraine 44/100 (MODERATE, palladium bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 72.1/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 39.5/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 33/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.08T (YoY -2.87%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 30 (Fear, 7d avg 27)
- BTC
- $77,063
- ETH
- $2,100
Macro Overview
Top: Russia-Ukraine 44/100 (MODERATE, palladium bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $77,063 · ETH: $2,100 · SOL: $85.23 Crypto sentiment: 30 (Fear, 7d avg 27) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.08T (YoY -2.87%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.68 (+14.6% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.6% | VIX -0.4% | TLT +0.9% | DXY -0.3% | OIL flat
Overnight vs US Close
▲ RGTI: +19.9% ▲ BB: +18.9% ▲ UMAC: +13.4% ▲ QCOM: +11.6% ▲ INFQ: +11.2% ▲ F: +9.2%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4509 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.03σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.01σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.73σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with defensive utilities bid suggests cautious optimism heading into US open. Watch for crypto correlation breaks and whether semiconductor strength can broaden into broader tech.