Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 24, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 72.1/100 · Composite 39.5
Risk Gauge: 72.1/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 39.5/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 34/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 38/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 72.1/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 39.5/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 34/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.08T (YoY -2.87%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27)
- BTC
- $76,730
- ETH
- $2,120
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 38/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $76,730 · ETH: $2,120 · SOL: $85.86 Crypto sentiment: 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.08T (YoY -2.87%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.68 (+14.6% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.6% | VIX -0.4% | TLT +0.9% | DXY +0.1% | OIL +0.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ KWEB: -4.3% ▲ SOXX: +3.3% ▲ BOTZ: +2.6% ▼ BRENT: -2.3% ▲ SCHD: +2.2% ▼ TKMS: -2.1%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4509 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Reverse Repo: +3.64σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.75σ [+] 10Y Treasury: +2.54σ [+] 30Y Treasury: +2.50σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ
US Open Setup
Setup favors tech and crypto momentum heading into US open, with semiconductor leadership suggesting AI themes remain intact. Watch for continued crypto ETF outflows to pressure digital asset flows despite overnight strength. Energy weakness may signal broader commodity rotation.