SIGNAL SCAN — May 25
Risk 72/100 · 6 movers
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SIGNAL SCAN — May 25, 2026
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SNAPSHOT
Risk-on tenor with semiconductors and cyclicals leading while crypto faces selling pressure. Tech rotation accelerating as defensive sectors underperform, energy pulling back on supply concerns.
BTC at $77,035, above $75K.
Crypto sentiment: 30 (Fear, 7d avg 27) (rising).
Equity sentiment (CNN F&G): 58.6 (Greed), 7d avg 63.2, 30d avg 68.5.
BTC ETF flows: -$105M outflow on May 25 (Mon close), after -$1.3B outflow trailing 5-trading-day.
SECTOR STRENGTH
Top sectors: SMH +2.1%, URA +1.9%, XLU +1.9%, XLC -0.6%, XLP -0.8%.
1. Semiconductors (SMH +2.1%) — strong
2. Uranium (URA +1.9%) — bid
3. Utilities (XLU +1.9%) — rotating
4. Comm Services (XLC -0.6%) — weak
5. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.8%) — weak
MACRO RISK DASHBOARD
Pre-market — tradfi reflects Fri close, crypto live.
Risk Gauge: 72.1/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION.
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.6% | VIX -0.4% | TLT +0.9% | DXY -0.3% | OIL flat
Composite Risk: 38.5/100 (MODERATE).
CAPE: 42.0 (BUBBLE_TERRITORY, 99th %ile, +146% vs mean).
Geopolitical risk: 40/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 51/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
RATES + CYCLE
ICSA: 209K (DOWN trend, -0.17z)
Business cycle: LEI 99.85 (STABLE), claims ↓209K, 2s10s +0.43.
Fed pricing: 1.8 × 25bp hikes priced (HIKES_PRICED); 10Y breakeven 2.40% (NORMAL).
FORWARD SCENARIOS
SCENARIO A (33%) — Tech Rally Extension
SPY: $767.61-782.26 (+3-5%)
QQQ: $752.78-773.93 (+5-8%)
BTC: $80,819-84,603 (+5-10%)
SCENARIO B (33%) — Crypto Decoupling
BTC: $83,089-88,386 (+8-15%)
TLT: $82.18-83.85 (-3 to -1%)
QQQ: $696.39-710.49 (-3 to -1%)
SCENARIO C (34%) — Defensive Rotation
TLT: $87.18-88.84 (+3-5%)
DXY: 99.98-101.93 (+1-3%)
SPY: $723.67-730.99 (-3 to -2%)
NARRATIVES
↑ Utilities★: 0.572 (Δ +0.072, CORE)
↑ Consumer Staples★: 0.562 (Δ +0.062, MIXED)
↑ Consumer Tech★: 0.557 (Δ +0.057, CORE)
BIG MOVES + DRIVERS
Top movers: KWEB -4.3%, MORPHO +4.2%, DOT -3.9%, SUI -3.8%, SOXX +3.3%, BRENT -3.2%.
KWEB $26.91 (-4.3%) — China internet sector faces regulatory overhang and growth concerns
MORPHO $2.23 (+4.2%) — DeFi protocol momentum amid lending market expansion
DOT $1.24 (-3.9%) — Polkadot ecosystem faces developer activity slowdown concerns
SUI $1.02 (-3.8%) — Profit-taking after recent Layer-1 narrative run
SOXX $537.33 (+3.3%) — Semiconductor strength on AI infrastructure demand thesis
BRENT $100.21 (-3.2%) — Supply outlook shifts weigh on crude complex
Tech hardware advances while crypto retreats, energy softens on supply dynamics
POSITIONING
BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): -$105M outflow on May 25 (Mon close) (IBIT -$69M, FBTC -$36M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.3B outflow.
Gold (COMEX): +94.4K net, Δ -6.2K (HEAVY_LIQUIDATION)
Copper #1 (COMEX): +75.0K net, Δ +1.5K (ADDING_LONGS)
INTEL
▲ Fed Rate Cut Expectations from Iran Deal Progress [BTC, SPY, TLT, BRENT]
▼ Crypto Market Structural Weakness [BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP]
▼ China-EU Trade Tensions and EM Pressure [KWEB, EEM, FXI, ASHR]
Congress (last 3 pages): 19 buys / 17 sells [R:1B/2S, D:18B/15S]. Top: QCOM(2), ETOR(1), NVDA(1).
IMPLICATION
The semiconductors-led tech rotation signals conviction in AI infrastructure themes while crypto ETF outflows suggest institutional risk reduction. Watch for semiconductor momentum to broaden into broader tech leadership, with utilities bid suggesting defensive hedging remains active. Energy weakness creates potential oversold setup if supply concerns prove transitory.
JSON
{"regime":"EXPANSION","riskGauge":72.1,"cape":42.04,"equitySentiment":58.6}
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