Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 26, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 72.1/100 · Composite 38.4
Risk Gauge: 72.1/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 38.4/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 38/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 45/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 72.1/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 38.4/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 38/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.08T (YoY -2.87%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 34 (Fear, 7d avg 29)
- BTC
- $77,063
- ETH
- $2,100
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 45/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $77,063 · ETH: $2,100 · SOL: $85.23 Crypto sentiment: 34 (Fear, 7d avg 29) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.08T (YoY -2.87%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.68 (+14.6% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.6% | VIX -0.7% | TLT +0.9% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -5.2%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ RGTI: +19.9% ▲ BB: +18.9% ▼ IPWR: -16.7% ▲ NEAR/USD: +14.4% ▲ UMAC: +13.4% ▲ QCOM: +11.6%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4509 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.03σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.01σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.73σ
US Open Setup
Energy's commodity unwind opens defensive rotation window while semis hold momentum. Watch for continuation selling in China exposure and crypto outflows to persist. Utilities bid suggests flight-to-yield positioning ahead of US open.