Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
MACRO RADAR · May 18, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime OVERHEATING · Risk 13.8/100 · Composite 28.5
Risk Gauge: 13.8/100 (Calm). Phase: OVERHEATING. Composite Risk: 28.5/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 36/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 41/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 13.8/100 (Calm)
- Regime Phase
- OVERHEATING
- Composite Risk
- 28.5/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 36/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.24T (YoY -2.95%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 276bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 28 (Fear, 7d avg 36)
- BTC
- $76,777
- ETH
- $2,115
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 41/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $76,777 · ETH: $2,115 · SOL: $84.78 Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 36) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.24T (YoY -2.95%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.28T · boj $4.23T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 276bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $13.18 (+32.6% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.4% | QQQ -0.8% | VIX +6.8% | TLT -1.3% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -2.1%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ SLV: -13.0% ▼ COPX: -9.6% ▼ KWEB: -7.9% ▲ VIX: +6.8% ▼ URA: -6.3% ▼ FXI: -5.4%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.04 (R), Gold $4547 (Y), Oil $102 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] IG Credit Spread: -2.11σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.02σ [+] Fed Balance Sheet: +1.62σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.57σ [-] Gold: -1.50σ
US Open Setup
Energy leadership with copper dumping suggests commodity rotation underway. China weakness broadening beyond internet to large-caps signals macro headwinds building. Watch for defensive bids into US open.