Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
MACRO RADAR · May 17, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime OVERHEATING · Risk 13.8/100 · Composite 28.7
Risk Gauge: 13.8/100 (Calm). Phase: OVERHEATING. Composite Risk: 28.7/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 35/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 38/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 13.8/100 (Calm)
- Regime Phase
- OVERHEATING
- Composite Risk
- 28.7/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 35/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.24T (YoY -2.95%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 276bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 27 (Fear, 7d avg 39)
- BTC
- $77,862
- ETH
- $2,173
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 38/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $77,862 · ETH: $2,173 · SOL: $85.95
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.24T (YoY -2.95%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.28T · boj $4.23T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 276bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $13.18 (+32.6% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.4% | QQQ -0.8% | VIX +6.8% | TLT -1.3% | DXY +0.4% | OIL -0.1% Crypto sentiment: 27 (Fear, 7d avg 39) (falling).
Overnight vs US Close
▼ SLV: -13.0% ▼ COPX: -9.6% ▼ KWEB: -7.9% ▲ VIX: +6.8% ▼ URA: -6.3% ▼ FXI: -5.4%
Hegemony Snapback
👀 2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.0392 (R), Gold $4547 (Y), Oil $102 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] IG Credit Spread: -2.11σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.02σ [+] Fed Balance Sheet: +1.62σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.57σ [-] Gold: -1.50σ
US Open Setup
Energy's divergent strength signals selective sector rotation rather than broad risk-off. Watch for bounce in oversold metals and crypto names if volatility peaks here.