Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
MACRO RADAR · May 19, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime OVERHEATING · Risk 13.8/100 · Composite 28.7
Risk Gauge: 13.8/100 (Calm). Phase: OVERHEATING. Composite Risk: 28.7/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 46/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 13.8/100 (Calm)
- Regime Phase
- OVERHEATING
- Composite Risk
- 28.7/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 46/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.10T (YoY -2.94%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 280bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 33)
- BTC
- $76,553
- ETH
- $2,121
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $76,553 · ETH: $2,121 · SOL: $84.78 Crypto sentiment: 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 33) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.10T (YoY -2.94%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.19T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.86 (+23.2% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
Key Prices
SPY -1.3% | QQQ -1.9% | VIX -3.3% | TLT -1.6% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.5%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ COPX: -8.4% ▼ EWY: -7.6% ▼ SLV: -7.4% ▼ URA: -7.3% ▼ SOXX: -6.4% ▼ SMH: -5.6%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.04 (R), Gold $4547 (Y), Oil $102 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] IG Credit Spread: -2.11σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.02σ [+] Fed Balance Sheet: +1.62σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.57σ [-] Gold: -1.50σ
US Open Setup
Energy leadership signals defensive positioning ahead of US open. Watch for continuation of semiconductor weakness while crypto maintains divergent strength pattern. Outflow pressure building across risk assets.