SIGNAL SCAN — May 18
Risk 14/100 · 6 movers
▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT
SIGNAL SCAN — May 18, 2026
Built for autonomous systems. Useful for humans.
SNAPSHOT
Risk-off undertones emerge with metals under pressure and volatility spiking, while energy holds defensive strength. Cross-asset divergence shows crypto selective rotation amid broader commodity weakness.
BTC at $76,777, above $75K.
Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 36) (falling).
Equity sentiment (CNN F&G): 62.9 (Greed), 7d avg 66.7, 30d avg 56.2.
BTC ETF flows: -$290M outflow on May 18 (Mon close), after -$1.3B outflow trailing 5-trading-day.
SECTOR STRENGTH
Top sectors: XLE +3.1%, XLF +0.2%, URA -6.3%, COPX -9.6%.
1. Energy (XLE +3.1%) — strong
2. Financials (XLF +0.2%) — mixed
3. Uranium (URA -6.3%) — weak
4. Copper Miners (COPX -9.6%) — dump
MACRO RISK DASHBOARD
Pre-market — tradfi reflects Fri close, crypto live.
Risk Gauge: 13.8/100 (Calm). Phase: OVERHEATING.
SPY -0.4% | QQQ -0.8% | VIX +6.8% | TLT -1.3% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -2.1%
Composite Risk: 28.5/100 (MODERATE).
CAPE: 41.7 (BUBBLE_TERRITORY, 99th %ile, +144% vs mean).
Geopolitical risk: 31/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 37/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
RATES + CYCLE
ICSA: 211K (FLAT trend, +0.03z)
Business cycle: LEI 99.85 (STABLE), claims ↑211K, 2s10s +0.50.
Fed implied: -1.5 cuts (HIKES_PRICED); 10Y breakeven 2.49% (NORMAL).
FORWARD SCENARIOS
SCENARIO A (33%) — Energy Leadership Extension
SPY: $763.21-779.24 (+3-5%)
QQQ: $747.36-770.42 (+5-9%)
BTC: $80,939-85,101 (+5-11%)
SCENARIO B (33%) — Crypto Selective Rotation
BTC: $83,436-89,262 (+9-16%)
TLT: $80.94-82.75 (-3 to -1%)
QQQ: $685.87-701.24 (-3 to -1%)
SCENARIO C (34%) — Defensive Flight Accelerates
TLT: $86.38-88.19 (+3-5%)
DXY: 100.44-102.60 (+1-3%)
SPY: $715.13-723.14 (-3 to -2%)
NARRATIVES
↑ Consumer Staples★: 0.555 (Δ +0.055, MIXED)
↑ Utilities★: 0.550 (Δ +0.050, MIXED)
↑ Brazil / LatAm★: 0.547 (Δ +0.047, MIXED)
BIG MOVES + DRIVERS
Top movers: SLV -13.0%, HYPE +9.9%, KWEB -7.9%, VIX +6.8%, BCH -6.8%, FXI -5.4%.
SLV $69.04 (-13.0%) — Silver complex under pressure from broader metals selloff
HYPE $45.55 (+9.9%) — Hyperliquid ecosystem bid on perp DEX adoption momentum
KWEB $28.17 (-7.9%) — China internet weakness on regulatory overhang concerns
VIX 18.43 (+6.8%) — Volatility spike from cross-asset risk-off positioning
BCH $385.00 (-6.8%) — Bitcoin Cash lagging broader crypto rotation themes
FXI $36.20 (-5.4%) — China large-cap pressure from macro headwinds
Metals weakness and China pressure drive defensive rotation while crypto shows selective strength
POSITIONING
BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): -$290M outflow on May 18 (Mon close) (IBIT -$136M, ARKB -$53M, GBTC -$44M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.3B outflow.
Copper #1 (COMEX): +73.5K net, Δ +10.4K (ADDING_LONGS)
Gold (COMEX): +100.6K net, Δ +5.0K (ADDING_LONGS)
INTEL
▼ Fed Hawkish Pivot Drives Rate Shock [USD, TLT, JPY, SLV]
▼ Global Inflation Resurgence [JGB, TLT, GLD, OIL]
▼ Commodities Collapse Despite Supply Risks [SLV, COPX, GLD, URA]
Congress (last 3 pages): 25 buys / 10 sells [D:18B/5S, R:7B/5S]. Top: INTU(3), JPM(2), HOLX(2), CMG(2).
IMPLICATION
Energy's defensive strength contrasts with metals capitulation, suggesting commodity rotation rather than broad risk-off. China weakness and volatility spike warrant caution, but selective crypto strength indicates differentiated flows. Watch whether metals stabilize or energy leadership broadens into other defensive sectors.
JSON
{"regime":"OVERHEATING","riskGauge":13.8,"cape":41.66,"equitySentiment":62.9}
api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs
npm i agentcanary-mcp
Not financial advice