Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 408.4M bbl, refinery 96.6%, SPR 326M.
MACRO RADAR · July 3, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 83.3/100 · Composite 43.7
Risk Gauge: 83.3/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 43.7/100 (MODERATE).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 83.3/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 43.7/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.82T (YoY -2.65%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 275bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 21 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 16)
- BTC
- $61,359
- ETH
- $1,703
Crypto
BTC: $61,359 · ETH: $1,703 · SOL: $80.70 Crypto sentiment: 21 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 16) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.82T (YoY -2.65%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $6.98T · boj $4.11T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 275bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.05 (-4.7% 30d, UP — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 408.4M bbl, refinery 96.6%, SPR 326M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.3% | QQQ -3.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT -1.1% | DXY -0.6% | OIL +0.6%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ SOXX: -11.6% ▼ EWY: -10.8% ▲ TKMS: +10.6% ▼ SMH: -9.7% ▼ XLK: -5.2% ▲ RTX: +5.0%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4037 (Y)
US Open Setup
The US open inherits a defensive-led tape with semiconductors and tech under meaningful pressure. Watch whether financials and healthcare can sustain overnight gains as session liquidity arrives, or whether any stabilization in tech triggers a snapback. Fading the defensive chase into the open may be premature until there is evidence that semiconductor selling is exhausted. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice