Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
MACRO RADAR · July 1, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 49.8
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 49.8/100 (ELEVATED).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 49.8/100 (ELEVATED)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.82T (YoY -2.69%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 280bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 11 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 14)
- BTC
- $58,994
- ETH
- $1,584
Crypto
BTC: $58,994 · ETH: $1,584 · SOL: $74.71 Crypto sentiment: 11 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 14) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.82T (YoY -2.69%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $6.98T · boj $4.11T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.82 (-8.0% 30d, UP — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
Key Prices
SPY +2.4% | QQQ +4.2% | VIX -6.8% | TLT -1.1% | DXY +0.2% | OIL -1.4%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ SOXX: +8.6% ▲ SMH: +7.2% ▼ VIX: -6.8% ▲ BOTZ: +5.4% ▲ XLK: +5.2% ▼ WPP: -4.6%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4015 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 10Y Treasury: -1.98σ [+] HY Credit Spread: +1.91σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.84σ [-] 30Y Treasury: -1.69σ [-] Silver: -1.51σ
US Open Setup
Overnight risk-on momentum out of Asia and Europe sets up a constructive US open for growth and semiconductor exposure. The defensives selloff confirms genuine rotation rather than a defensive hedge — lean into the growth trade but stay alert to whether crypto sustains or fades the move, as a divergence there would be an early warning of fading risk appetite heading into the session. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice