Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
MACRO RADAR · June 30, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 49.8
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 49.8/100 (ELEVATED).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 49.8/100 (ELEVATED)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.87T (YoY -2.70%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 283bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 15 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15)
- BTC
- $59,867
- ETH
- $1,589
Crypto
BTC: $59,867 · ETH: $1,589 · SOL: $74.56 Crypto sentiment: 15 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.87T (YoY -2.70%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.02T · boj $4.12T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 283bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.60 (-12.0% 30d, DOWN — WEAK_GLOBAL_TRADE). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.9% | QQQ +1.1% | VIX -4.1% | TLT +0.1% | DXY +0.2% | OIL -0.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ TKMS: -9.3% ▲ MOH: +6.3% ▲ XBI: +4.4% ▼ VIX: -4.1% ▼ EWY: -3.7% ▼ WPP: -3.3%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.40 (R), Gold $4074 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 30Y Treasury: -2.16σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.15σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.84σ [-] 10Y Treasury: -1.82σ [-] Silver: -1.51σ
US Open Setup
The overnight session hands the US open a setup where domestic defensives and growth healthcare outperformed while materials and crypto remain under distribution. Watch whether the volatility compression holds into the open or reverses on any macro surprise. International weakness and continued crypto ETF outflows suggest the risk-on tone is selective, not broad — fade overextended healthcare momentum and stay cautious on materials. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice