Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
MACRO RADAR · June 26, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 50.8
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 50.8/100 (ELEVATED).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 50.8/100 (ELEVATED)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.87T (YoY -2.79%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 271bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 13 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19)
- BTC
- $58,497
- ETH
- $1,524
Crypto
BTC: $58,497 · ETH: $1,524 · SOL: $66.09 Crypto sentiment: 13 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.87T (YoY -2.79%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.02T · boj $4.12T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $11.36 (-14.8% 30d, DOWN — WEAK_GLOBAL_TRADE). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.1% | QQQ +0.4% | VIX +1.4% | TLT +1.3% | DXY -0.1% | OIL +0.8%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ MOH: +9.9% ▲ EWY: +6.7% ▼ SLV: -6.0% ▲ TKMS: +5.2% ▼ COPX: -3.8% ▼ URA: -3.6%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.40 (R), Gold $3988 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[-] Silver: -2.37σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.18σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.15σ [-] Gold: -2.12σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +1.95σ
US Open Setup
Overnight flows favor watching whether industrial and semiconductor strength holds into the US open or fades after the gap. Metals and uranium weakness signals commodity-sensitive positioning is unwinding, so avoid chasing those. Crypto ETF outflows running multi-day suggest digital assets remain a headwind rather than a tailwind for broader risk sentiment at the open. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice