Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
MACRO RADAR · June 25, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 97.3/100 · Composite 49.6
Risk Gauge: 97.3/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 49.6/100 (ELEVATED).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 97.3/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 49.6/100 (ELEVATED)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.87T (YoY -2.79%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 271bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19)
- BTC
- $60,707
- ETH
- $1,619
Crypto
BTC: $60,707 · ETH: $1,619 · SOL: $67.61 Crypto sentiment: 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.87T (YoY -2.79%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.02T · boj $4.12T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.77 (-11.4% 30d, DOWN — WEAK_GLOBAL_TRADE). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
Key Prices
SPY -1.5% | QQQ -3.7% | VIX -4.4% | TLT +1.5% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -5.2%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ TKMS: +16.9% ▼ SLV: -12.1% ▼ COPX: -10.8% ▼ EWY: -9.9% ▼ SOXX: -8.2% ▼ SMH: -7.5%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.40 (R), Gold $4115 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.55σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.15σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.12σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.10σ [-] Silver: -1.85σ
US Open Setup
Overnight Asia and EU flows reinforce the defensive bid coming into the US open. Watch whether the semiconductor selloff stabilizes or continues to drag discretionary names lower. Positioning should lean toward staples and healthcare as the path of least resistance; fading the metals weakness prematurely carries risk until industrial demand signals stabilize. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice