MACRO RADAR — Jun 25
Risk 97/100 · 6 movers
▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT
Pre-market brief — tradfi data reflects Wed 2026-06-24 close. Crypto data is live.
MACRO RADAR — Jun 25, 2026
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MACRO OVERVIEW
Risk Gauge: 97.3/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION.
Composite Risk: 49.6/100 (ELEVATED).
CRYPTO
BTC: $60,707 · ETH: $1,619 · SOL: $67.61
Crypto sentiment: 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19) (falling).
LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
Global CB Liquidity: $17.87T (YoY -2.79%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.02T · boj $4.12T
US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL
BDRY: $11.77 (-11.4% 30d, DOWN — WEAK_GLOBAL_TRADE).
Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
KEY PRICES
SPY -1.5% | QQQ -3.7% | VIX -4.4% | TLT +1.5% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -5.2%
OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE
▲ TKMS: +16.9%
▼ SLV: -12.1%
▼ COPX: -10.8%
▼ EWY: -9.9%
▼ SOXX: -8.2%
▼ SMH: -7.5%
HEGEMONY SNAPBACK
1.5/6 — WATCH
USD Index 120.40 (R), Gold $4115 (Y)
NOTABLE Z-SCORES
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.55σ
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.15σ
[+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.12σ
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.10σ
[-] Silver: -1.85σ
US OPEN SETUP
Overnight Asia and EU flows reinforce the defensive bid coming into the US open. Watch whether the semiconductor selloff stabilizes or continues to drag discretionary names lower. Positioning should lean toward staples and healthcare as the path of least resistance; fading the metals weakness prematurely carries risk until industrial demand signals stabilize.
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