Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
MACRO RADAR · June 23, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 66.3/100 · Composite 40.6
Risk Gauge: 66.3/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 40.6/100 (MODERATE).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 66.3/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 40.6/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.98T (YoY -2.67%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 263bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 20)
- BTC
- $64,129
- ETH
- $1,731
Crypto
BTC: $64,129 · ETH: $1,731 · SOL: $71.92 Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 20) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.98T (YoY -2.67%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 263bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.57 (-4.4% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.5% | QQQ +2.1% | VIX +3.0% | TLT -0.3% | DXY flat | OIL +0.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ SOXX: +9.2% ▲ SMH: +7.2% ▲ EWY: +6.8% ▼ RTX: -5.6% ▲ XBI: +4.6% ▲ XLK: +3.4%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4216 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.63σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -2.62σ [+] 2Y Treasury: +2.11σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.11σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.78σ
US Open Setup
Overnight Asia and EU sessions are handing the US open a strong risk-on setup with growth and semiconductors firmly in the lead. Watch whether defense selling deepens into the open or stabilizes — that rotation is the tell for how committed this move is. Lean into tech and biotech momentum but stay alert to a reversal if macro headlines shift. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice