Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
MACRO RADAR · June 20, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 23.1/100 · Composite 31.3
Risk Gauge: 23.1/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 31.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 35/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 48/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 23.1/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 31.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 35/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.98T (YoY -2.67%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 263bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19)
- BTC
- $62,739
- ETH
- $1,697
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 48/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $62,739 · ETH: $1,697 · SOL: $68.99 Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.98T (YoY -2.67%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 263bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $11.88 (-1.8% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.5% | QQQ +1.5% | VIX -9.0% | TLT +0.6% | DXY +0.8% | OIL -0.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ VIX: -9.0% ▲ SOXX: +8.2% ▲ SMH: +7.1% ▲ EWY: +6.5% ▼ SLV: -6.1% ▼ COPX: -4.8%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4216 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.63σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -2.62σ [+] 2Y Treasury: +2.11σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.11σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.78σ
US Open Setup
The overnight setup favors leaning into tech and semiconductor exposure at the open while treating energy and metals weakness as confirmation of the rotation rather than a dip to buy. Watch whether biotech's bid holds intraday as a secondary risk-on signal. Crypto ETF outflows are a mild caution — if crypto fails to catch the equity rally, that divergence narrows the breadth of the risk-on move. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice