MACRO RADAR — Jun 20
Risk 23/100 · 6 movers
▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT
Weekend brief — tradfi data reflects Fri 2026-06-19 close. Crypto data is live.
MACRO RADAR — Jun 20, 2026
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MACRO OVERVIEW
Risk Gauge: 23.1/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION.
Composite Risk: 31.3/100 (MODERATE).
Geopolitical risk: 35/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 48/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
CRYPTO
BTC: $62,739 · ETH: $1,697 · SOL: $68.99
Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 19) (rising).
LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
Global CB Liquidity: $17.98T (YoY -2.67%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T
US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
HY Credit Spreads: 263bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION)
BDRY: $11.88 (-1.8% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING).
Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, refinery 96.7%, SPR 340M.
KEY PRICES
SPY -0.5% | QQQ +1.5% | VIX -9.0% | TLT +0.6% | DXY +0.8% | OIL -0.3%
OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE
▼ VIX: -9.0%
▲ SOXX: +8.2%
▲ SMH: +7.1%
▲ EWY: +6.5%
▼ SLV: -6.1%
▼ COPX: -4.8%
HEGEMONY SNAPBACK
1.5/6 — WATCH
USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4216 (Y)
NOTABLE Z-SCORES
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.63σ
[-] HY Credit Spread: -2.62σ
[+] 2Y Treasury: +2.11σ
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.11σ
[-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.78σ
US OPEN SETUP
The overnight setup favors leaning into tech and semiconductor exposure at the open while treating energy and metals weakness as confirmation of the rotation rather than a dip to buy. Watch whether biotech's bid holds intraday as a secondary risk-on signal. Crypto ETF outflows are a mild caution — if crypto fails to catch the equity rally, that divergence narrows the breadth of the risk-on move.
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