Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, SPR 340M.
MACRO RADAR · June 19, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 23.1/100 · Composite 32.8
Risk Gauge: 23.1/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 32.8/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 32/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 48/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 23.1/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 32.8/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 32/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.97T (YoY -2.71%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 263bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 14 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 18)
- BTC
- $64,231
- ETH
- $1,743
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 48/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $64,231 · ETH: $1,743 · SOL: $71.68 Crypto sentiment: 14 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 18) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.97T (YoY -2.71%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 263bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.50 (-5.0% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 418.2M bbl, SPR 340M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.5% | QQQ +1.5% | VIX -11.1% | TLT +0.6% | DXY +0.8% | OIL -1.6%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ VIX: -11.1% ▲ SOXX: +8.2% ▲ SMH: +7.1% ▲ EWY: +6.5% ▼ SLV: -6.1% ▼ COPX: -4.8%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4243 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.18σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.97σ
US Open Setup
Overnight flows set up a constructive US open skewed toward growth and tech. Watch whether semiconductor strength broadens into wider equity participation or remains narrow. Commodity weakness suggests macro growth expectations are being repriced, not confirmed — monitor energy and copper for stabilization before adding cyclical exposure. Crypto ETF outflows remain a modest headwind for digital assets despite the altcoin bid. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice