Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%.
MACRO RADAR · June 18, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 33.1/100 · Composite 35.4
Risk Gauge: 33.1/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 35.4/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 43/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 50/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 33.1/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 35.4/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 43/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.97T (YoY -2.71%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 271bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 15 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 18)
- BTC
- $65,750
- ETH
- $1,791
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 50/100 (MODERATE, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $65,750 · ETH: $1,791 · SOL: $73.58 Crypto sentiment: 15 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 18) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.97T (YoY -2.71%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.99 (-1.0% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%.
Key Prices
SPY -1.8% | QQQ -2.9% | VIX +12.4% | TLT +0.7% | DXY +0.7% | OIL -1.5%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ VIX: +12.4% ▲ TKMS: +5.3% ▲ RTX: +4.9% ▼ KWEB: -4.7% ▼ SOXX: -4.6% ▼ SLV: -4.5%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4333 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] HY Credit Spread: -2.39σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.97σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.67σ
US Open Setup
The overnight setup favors defensive positioning into the US open. Defense and biotech are absorbing flows while semiconductors and copper miners bear the brunt of the risk-off rotation. Watch whether volatility sustains its spike or fades into the cash session open, as that will determine whether the selloff broadens into financials or stabilizes around existing sector leaders.