Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 17, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 25.5/100 · Composite 30.8
Risk Gauge: 25.5/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 30.8/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 43/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 25.5/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 30.8/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 43/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.97T (YoY -2.71%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 266bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 17)
- BTC
- $66,107
- ETH
- $1,778
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $66,107 · ETH: $1,778 · SOL: $73.66 Crypto sentiment: 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 17) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.97T (YoY -2.71%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 266bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.15 (-0.3% 30d, DOWN — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +1.2% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX +1.3% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -6.6%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ WTI: -6.6% ▲ URA: +5.2% ▼ BRENT: -4.9% ▲ COPX: +4.4% ▲ EWY: +4.3% ▼ XLE: -3.8%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4320 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Jobless Claims: +1.97σ
US Open Setup
The overnight setup favors materials and defense over energy and tech into the US open. Uranium and copper strength points to a commodity-rotation theme worth watching for follow-through, while the oil flush creates a headwind for energy names. DeFi momentum in crypto is selective, not broad-based, so chasing altcoin moves requires caution given net ETF outflows continuing on the week.