Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 16, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 33.0/100 · Composite 32.3
Risk Gauge: 33.0/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 32.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 45/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 33.0/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 32.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 45/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.97T (YoY -2.75%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 271bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15)
- BTC
- $66,107
- ETH
- $1,778
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $66,107 · ETH: $1,778 · SOL: $73.66 Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.97T (YoY -2.75%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.10T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL BDRY: $11.99 (+1.7% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +2.3% | QQQ +3.7% | VIX -8.4% | TLT -0.3% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -0.5%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ VIX: -8.4% ▲ COPX: +8.0% ▲ URA: +7.2% ▲ SOXX: +7.1% ▲ EWY: +6.3% ▲ SMH: +6.2%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.51 (R), Gold $4320 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Jobless Claims: +1.97σ
US Open Setup
The overnight session arrives with a clear risk-on backdrop already in place — semis, metals, and cyclicals led the prior session hard. For the US open, the setup favors continuation in growth and industrial exposure while energy and defensives remain the laggards to avoid. Monitor whether crypto ETF outflow pressure persists as a divergence signal against the equity rally.