Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 15, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 76.3/100 · Composite 42.9
Risk Gauge: 76.3/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 42.9/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 38/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 50/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 76.3/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 42.9/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 38/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.95T (YoY -2.75%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 20 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 13)
- BTC
- $64,510
- ETH
- $1,681
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 50/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $64,510 · ETH: $1,681 · SOL: $68.94 Crypto sentiment: 20 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 13) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.95T (YoY -2.75%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.08T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.32 (+5.0% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +2.2% | QQQ +4.0% | VIX -9.1% | TLT +1.0% | DXY -0.2% | OIL -5.6%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ COPX: +11.0% ▲ EWY: +10.7% ▲ SOXX: +10.1% ▼ VIX: -9.1% ▲ SMH: +8.6% ▲ URA: +7.5%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4210 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.97σ [-] Gold: -1.59σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with metals strength suggests cyclical rotation accelerating. Watch for energy laggard status to persist as renewables narrative dominates. Volatility collapse opens room for momentum extension into US open.