Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 14, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 76.3/100 · Composite 43.3
Risk Gauge: 76.3/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 43.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 35/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 76.3/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 43.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 35/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.95T (YoY -2.75%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 18 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 12)
- BTC
- $63,506
- ETH
- $1,665
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $63,506 · ETH: $1,665 · SOL: $66.88 Crypto sentiment: 18 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 12) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.95T (YoY -2.75%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.08T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.32 (+5.0% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +2.2% | QQQ +4.0% | VIX -9.1% | TLT +1.0% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -3.2%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ ASTS: -15.5% ▲ POET: +11.4% ▲ ARM: +11.3% ▼ RKLB: -10.8% ▼ LPTH: -8.8% ▲ AMKR: +8.7%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4210 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [+] Jobless Claims: +2.05σ [-] Gold: -1.59σ
US Open Setup
Tech momentum with metals rotation suggests risk-on conviction into the US session. Energy weakness signals rotation out of defensives. Watch for semiconductor follow-through and whether crypto can sustain AI narrative momentum alongside traditional risk assets.