Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 13, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 76.3/100 · Composite 44.3
Risk Gauge: 76.3/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 44.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 41/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 76.3/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 44.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 41/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.95T (YoY -2.75%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 280bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 13 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11)
- BTC
- $63,435
- ETH
- $1,671
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $63,435 · ETH: $1,671 · SOL: $66.91 Crypto sentiment: 13 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.95T (YoY -2.75%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.08T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.56 (+7.0% 30d, UP — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, refinery 95.3%, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +2.2% | QQQ +4.0% | VIX -9.1% | TLT +1.0% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -3.9%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ ASTS: -14.2% ▲ POET: +10.3% ▼ RKLB: -9.4% ▲ CRWV: +8.6% ▲ MOS: +7.6% ▲ ARM: +7.4%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4213 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.96σ [-] Gold: -1.73σ [+] VIX: +1.71σ
US Open Setup
Overnight strength in cyclicals and tech sets up bullish tone for US open. Watch for continuation in semiconductor names and industrial metals as volatility remains subdued.