Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
MACRO RADAR · May 31, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 51.4/100 · Composite 34.7
Risk Gauge: 51.4/100 (Elevated). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 34.7/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 40/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 51/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 51.4/100 (Elevated)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 34.7/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 40/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.05T (YoY -2.80%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 272bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 28 (Fear, 7d avg 26)
- BTC
- $73,496
- ETH
- $2,013
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 51/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $73,496 · ETH: $2,013 · SOL: $82.42 Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 26).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.80%) — fed $6.70T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 272bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.94 (+13.1% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.8% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.7%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ NOW: +14.4% ▲ SMCI: +11.6% ▲ HOOD: +11.2% ▲ ABSI: +11.0% ▲ ORCL: +10.8% ▲ PANW: +9.3%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.29 (R), Gold $4545 (Y), Oil $98 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] VIX: -2.26σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.62σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.59σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with defensive selling suggests growth positioning ahead of session. Watch crypto flows for institutional sentiment shift. Defense strength indicates geopolitical premium persisting.