Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
MACRO RADAR · May 30, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 51.4/100 · Composite 31.9
Risk Gauge: 51.4/100 (Elevated). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 31.9/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 40/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 52/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 51.4/100 (Elevated)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 31.9/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 40/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.05T (YoY -2.80%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 272bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 26)
- BTC
- $73,196
- ETH
- $2,000
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 52/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $73,196 · ETH: $2,000 · SOL: $81.51 Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 26) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.80%) — fed $6.70T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 272bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.92 (+12.9% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.8% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ ABSI: +17.8% ▲ INFQ: +14.9% ▲ KTOS: +13.8% ▲ HOOD: +11.3% ▲ FSLR: +10.9% ▼ IPWR: -10.8%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.29 (R), Gold $4498 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.85σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.66σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.64σ [-] VIX: -1.55σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with metals support suggests growth rotation gaining momentum. Watch for defensive sector weakness to persist if risk-on flows continue. Crypto outflows notable headwind but sector selectivity emerging.