May 31, 2026 — The Record

Weekend brief — tradfi data reflects Fri 2026-05-29 close. Crypto data is live. MACRO RADAR — May 31, 2026 Built for autonomous systems. Useful for humans.

MACRO OVERVIEW

Risk Gauge: 51.4/100 (Elevated). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 34.7/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 40/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 51/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).

CRYPTO

BTC: $73,496 · ETH: $2,013 · SOL: $82.42 Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 26).

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.80%) — fed $6.70T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 272bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.94 (+13.1% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 441.7M bbl, refinery 94.5%, SPR 365M.

KEY PRICES

SPY +0.8% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.7%

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ NOW: +14.4% ▲ SMCI: +11.6% ▲ HOOD: +11.2% ▲ ABSI: +11.0% ▲ ORCL: +10.8% ▲ PANW: +9.3%

HEGEMONY SNAPBACK

2/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.29 (R), Gold $4545 (Y), Oil $98 (Y)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

[-] VIX: -2.26σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.62σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.59σ

US OPEN SETUP

Tech leadership with defensive selling suggests growth positioning ahead of session. Watch crypto flows for institutional sentiment shift. Defense strength indicates geopolitical premium persisting.

JSON

{"regime":"EXPANSION","riskGauge":51.4,"compositeRisk":34.7,"geoRisk":40} api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice

Weekend brief — tradfi data reflects Fri 2026-05-29 close. Crypto data is live. SIGNAL SCAN — May 31, 2026

SNAPSHOT

[!] Validator rejected after retry: atom not built for signal: macro. Showing deterministic facts only — no Sonnet narrative. BTC at $73,991, below $75K. BTC ETF flows: -$125M outflow on May 29 (Fri close), after -$1.5B outflow trailing 5-trading-day.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Weekend — markets closed; tradfi reflects Fri close, crypto live. SPY +0.8% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.7% | TLT +0.5% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.7% ICSA: 215K (DOWN trend, +0.63z)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — risk on extension SPY: $776.93-790.57 (+3-5%) QQQ: $771.58-791.54 (+5-7%) BTC: $77,325-80,659 (+5-9%) SCENARIO B — crypto led divergence BTC: $79,325-83,993 (+7-14%) TLT: $83.44-84.99 (-3 to -1%) QQQ: $718.35-731.66 (-3 to -1%) SCENARIO C — risk off rotation TLT: $88.08-89.62 (+3-5%) DXY: 99.83-101.62 (+1-3%) SPY: $736.03-742.85 (-3 to -2%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

Top sectors: XLK +3.6%, COPX +2.4%, ITA +2.1%, XLU -1.6%, XLP -2.0%.

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

Top movers: FET +14.7%, BNB +12.3%, XMR -10.7%, EWY +3.8%, TKMS +3.8%, XLK +3.6%. Per-mover drivers omitted (deterministic fallback).

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): -$125M outflow on May 29 (Fri close) (IBIT -$68M, FBTC -$32M, BTC -$10M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.5B outflow. Whale positioning (Hyperliquid, top 3 by notional): HYPE: $34M long / $147M short (net short $113M, -$36.7M PnL); BTC: $40M long / $45M short (flat, +$1.8M PnL); ETH: $30M long / $50M short (net short $20M, +$2.7M PnL). api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice

Weekend brief — tradfi data reflects Fri 2026-05-29 close. Crypto data is live. MARKET PULSE — May 31, 2026 Built for autonomous systems. Useful for humans.

CRYPTO

BTC: $74,084 — 1d:BEAR_REGIME · 4h:BULL_REGIME · → rev-watch · below $75K ETH: $2,033 · (same) SOL: $83.12 · (same) Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 26).

STABLECOIN WHALES

• 129M USDC ($129M) — transferred from unknown wallet to #Aave FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, |spread|<1%) • LAB: 565% net APR (0.2581% rate) · Long Bybit / Short Bitget · OI $61.7M · Spread +0.17% • ADA: 40% net APR (0.0364% rate) · Long Bybit / Short Binance · OI $63.4M · Spread -0.04%

OPEN INTEREST

Total OI (top 43 perps): $104.9B Top OI: BTC $54.5B · ETH $31.3B · SOL $5.3B · HYPE $3.3B · XRP $3.0B OI shifters (4h): PENDLE -5.5% · DYDX -5.5% · RENDER -4.5% · XLM +3.9% · IMX -2.9%

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows (DefiLlama, issuer-reported): -$125M outflow on May 29 (Fri close) (IBIT -$68M, FBTC -$32M, BTC -$10M). Trailing 5-trading-day net: -$1.5B outflow. BTC options — NEUTRAL: max pain $73,000 (1JUN26), P/C 0.63 OI / 0.94 vol, skew +2.9 IV. Perp funding (8h, cross-exchange mean): BTC +0.2827% (12/21 positive). Whale positioning (Hyperliquid, top 3 by notional): HYPE: $34M long / $147M short (net short $113M, -$36.7M PnL); BTC: $40M long / $45M short (flat, +$1.8M PnL); ETH: $30M long / $50M short (net short $20M, +$2.7M PnL). Liquidations: 24h total $6.3M; latest 4h $319 (100% long / 0% short, 1L/0S events, long-dominant). ETH stake APY 2.39% vs T-bill 3.60% (spread -1.21, TBILL_FAVORED).

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↓↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ Crypto institutional exodus accelerates [BTC, ETH, SUI] ▲ AI valuation explosion continues [XLK, NVDA, MARA] ▼ Middle East tensions escalate significantly [BRENT, XLE, VIX, GLD]

IMPLICATION

Mid-session momentum favors risk assets with tech and cyclicals catching flows. Continued crypto outflows suggest institutional caution despite altcoin strength. Watch for defensive breakdown acceleration if growth rotation extends into the close. Consider fading defensive weakness on oversold conditions.

JSON

{"btc":73991,"cryptoSentiment":28} api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice