Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 29, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 37.8/100 · Composite 32.3
Risk Gauge: 37.8/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 32.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 43/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 37.8/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 32.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 43/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.06T (YoY -2.83%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 271bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27)
- BTC
- $73,120
- ETH
- $1,979
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $73,120 · ETH: $1,979 · SOL: $80.60 Crypto sentiment: 23 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.06T (YoY -2.83%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 271bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.95 (+16.4% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.5% | QQQ +0.7% | VIX -3.4% | TLT +0.8% | DXY -0.2% | OIL -0.9%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ KTOS: +15.0% ▲ ARM: +13.6% ▲ INFQ: +12.0% ▲ ABSI: +11.1% ▲ SMCI: +10.8% ▼ IPWR: -10.5%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.29 (R), Gold $4451 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.85σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.73σ [-] Gold: -1.66σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.64σ
US Open Setup
Setup favors risk assets into US open with volatility compressed and crypto flows stabilizing. Watch for defense sector continuation and energy weakness to persist as broader market sentiment remains constructive.