Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 28, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 37.8/100 · Composite 34.4
Risk Gauge: 37.8/100 (Low). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 34.4/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 44/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 37.8/100 (Low)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 34.4/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 44/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.06T (YoY -2.83%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 272bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27)
- BTC
- $75,848
- ETH
- $2,075
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $75,848 · ETH: $2,075 · SOL: $83.78 Crypto sentiment: 22 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 27) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.06T (YoY -2.83%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.17T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 272bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.80 (+12.3% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +1.7% | VIX -4.2% | TLT +0.7% | DXY +0.2% | OIL -3.4%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ IPWR: +13.4% ▼ PDD: -10.4% ▲ UMAC: +8.1% ▲ NIO: +7.9% ▲ IREN: +7.6% ▼ QCOM: -7.5%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.29 (R), Gold $4508 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 2s10s Curve: -2.24σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.79σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.73σ [+] 2Y Treasury: +1.69σ
US Open Setup
Sector rotation favors industrial metals and semiconductors as crypto outflows intensify. Watch for spillover from digital asset weakness into risk sentiment, though traditional tech remains resilient on fundamental drivers.