Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 27, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 44.5/100 · Composite 37.8
Risk Gauge: 44.5/100 (Elevated). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 37.8/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 46/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 44.5/100 (Elevated)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 37.8/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 46/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.09T (YoY -2.84%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 274bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 28)
- BTC
- $75,848
- ETH
- $2,075
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $75,848 · ETH: $2,075 · SOL: $83.78 Crypto sentiment: 25 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 28) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.09T (YoY -2.84%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.19T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 274bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.97 (+13.6% 30d, UP — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +1.1% | QQQ +2.2% | VIX +2.5% | TLT +1.0% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -1.8%
Top Movers
Top movers: SOXX +8.6%, EWY +7.6%, TKMS +6.6%, SMH +6.0%, NEAR -5.7%, XLK +3.7%.
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4503 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.03σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -2.01σ [+] WTI Crude Oil: +1.75σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.73σ
US Open Setup
Risk-on positioning favors tech and cyclicals ahead of the US open. Watch for continuation in semiconductor momentum while monitoring crypto for stability as geopolitical headlines persist. Energy weakness suggests rotation rather than broad risk-off.