Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 23, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 44.0
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 44.0/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 39/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 44.0/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 39/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.08T (YoY -2.87%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 28 (Fear, 7d avg 27)
- BTC
- $75,480
- ETH
- $2,066
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $75,480 · ETH: $2,066 · SOL: $84.42 Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 27).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.08T (YoY -2.87%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.68 (+14.6% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.6% | VIX -0.4% | TLT +0.9% | DXY +0.1% | OIL +0.3%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ KWEB: -4.3% ▲ SOXX: +3.3% ▲ BOTZ: +2.6% ▼ BRENT: -2.3% ▲ SCHD: +2.2% ▼ TKMS: -2.1%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4509 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Reverse Repo: +3.64σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.75σ [+] 10Y Treasury: +2.54σ [+] 30Y Treasury: +2.50σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ
US Open Setup
Setup favors selective tech exposure while crypto faces headwinds from sustained ETF outflows. Watch for semiconductor leadership to broaden into broader tech or face profit-taking pressure.