Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 22, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 44.3
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 44.3/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 46/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 44.3/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 46/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.08T (YoY -2.87%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 280bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 28 (Fear, 7d avg 28)
- BTC
- $77,590
- ETH
- $2,136
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 53/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $77,590 · ETH: $2,136 · SOL: $87.10 Crypto sentiment: 28 (Fear, 7d avg 28).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.08T (YoY -2.87%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.39 (+15.8% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +1.2% | QQQ +1.9% | VIX -3.9% | TLT +1.4% | DXY +0.1% | OIL -0.8%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ EWY: +7.1% ▲ SOXX: +5.6% ▲ XBI: +4.7% ▲ COPX: +4.6% ▲ SMH: +4.4% ▲ TKMS: +4.0%
Hegemony Snapback
2.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4548 (Y), Oil $112 (R)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Reverse Repo: +3.64σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.75σ [+] 10Y Treasury: +2.54σ [+] 30Y Treasury: +2.50σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with semiconductor strength suggests continuation potential into US open. Watch for momentum follow-through versus defensive rotation given mixed consumer staples weakness.