Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
MACRO RADAR · May 21, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 44.6
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 44.6/100 (MODERATE). Geopolitical risk: 37/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 43/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 44.6/100 (MODERATE)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 37/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.09T (YoY -2.92%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 286bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 29 (Fear, 7d avg 30)
- BTC
- $77,896
- ETH
- $2,140
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 43/100 (MODERATE, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $77,896 · ETH: $2,140 · SOL: $86.53 Crypto sentiment: 29 (Fear, 7d avg 30).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.09T (YoY -2.92%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 286bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.10 (+17.5% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 445.0M bbl, refinery 91.6%, SPR 374M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.4% | QQQ +1.0% | VIX -3.4% | TLT +0.4% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -8.0%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ TKMS: +12.2% ▼ WTI: -8.0% ▲ SOXX: +4.9% ▼ BRENT: -4.9% ▼ VIX: -3.4% ▲ SMH: +3.4%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 119.28 (R), Gold $4484 (Y), Oil $102 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] Reverse Repo: +3.26σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.88σ [+] 30Y Treasury: +2.49σ [+] 10Y Treasury: +2.45σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.24σ
US Open Setup
Tech leadership with semiconductor strength suggests growth momentum carrying into US open. Energy weakness creates rotation opportunity while crypto flows indicate continued risk appetite. Watch for sector rotation sustainability as institutional flows favor higher-beta assets over commodities.