Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
MACRO RADAR · May 20, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime OVERHEATING · Risk 100.0/100 · Composite 45.4
Risk Gauge: 100.0/100 (Critical). Phase: OVERHEATING. Composite Risk: 45.4/100 (ELEVATED). Geopolitical risk: 44/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 100.0/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- OVERHEATING
- Composite Risk
- 45.4/100 (ELEVATED)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 44/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $18.09T (YoY -2.92%)
- US M2
- $22.69T (YoY +4.57%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 283bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 27 (Fear, 7d avg 31)
- BTC
- $76,605
- ETH
- $2,107
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, oil bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $76,605 · ETH: $2,107 · SOL: $83.89 Crypto sentiment: 27 (Fear, 7d avg 31) (falling).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $18.09T (YoY -2.92%) — fed $6.73T · ecb $7.18T · boj $4.18T US M2: $22.69T (YoY +4.57%) HY Credit Spreads: 283bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.70 (+19.8% 30d, DOWN — BULLISH_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 452.9M bbl, refinery 91.7%, SPR 384M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.7% | QQQ -1.0% | VIX +1.3% | TLT -0.8% | DXY +0.4% | OIL -4.2%
Overnight vs US Close
▲ TKMS: +7.0% ▲ WPP: +6.4% ▼ URA: -5.5% ▼ COPX: -4.4% ▼ WTI: -4.2% ▼ BOTZ: -3.3%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 118.04 (R), Gold $4560 (Y), Oil $102 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] IG Credit Spread: -2.11σ [+] 10Y Real Rate: +2.02σ [+] Fed Balance Sheet: +1.62σ [-] HY Credit Spread: -1.57σ
US Open Setup
Energy strength against metals weakness suggests sector rotation into traditional cyclicals. Watch for continuation of this industrial theme at US open, particularly if energy holds gains while base metals remain under pressure.