April 13, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Apr 13, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 0/100 • BTC:

$71,032

• ETH:

$2,193

• SOL:

$81.86

• GOLD:

$4,760

SPY: $679.46 (+0.5%) QQQ: $611.07 (+0.8%) VIX: 19.2 (-1.3%) TLT: $86.49 (-0.5%) DXY: 99.0 (+0.4%) OIL: $104.97 (+8.7%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.98%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 290bps CALM (5d: -27bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▲ HY Credit Spread: -2.27σ ▼ WTI Crude Oil: +2.24σ ▲ WTREGEN: -2.19σ ▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +2.00σ ▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +1.60σ

TOP MOVERS

▲ WTI $105 (+8.7%) ▲ OIL $105 (+8.7%) — Bitcoin dips to $70.6K, oil rises after US announces Hormuz ▲ BRENT $102 (+7.4%) ▼ TKMS $82.90 (-7.1%) ▼ CHZ $0.03612 (-5.1%) ▼ SKY $0.07246 (-4.7%) ▲ EWZ $41.33 (+4.5%) ▼ DASH $41.45 (-4.5%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 1/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds ▼ Oil: $114 (>$110) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — April 13, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off sentiment dominates as failed US-Iran nuclear talks trigger oil shock and Hormuz blockade fears. VIX spikes 11% while energy surges 8%, creating stagflationary crosscurrents. Crypto shows resilience with massive institutional flows despite geopolitical stress.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 0.0/100 (Calm) Regime: OVERHEATING — liquidity expansion drives risk assets despite geopolitical tensions Key prices: SPY +0.5% | QQQ +0.8% | VIX +10.9% | TLT -0.5% | DXY +0.3% | OIL +7.9% ICSA: 219K (flat trend, z-score 0.86)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Hormuz Escalation SPY: $610-640 (-10 to -6%) OIL: $115-125 (+10 to +20%) SCENARIO B — Diplomatic Resolution BTC: $75-80K (+6 to +13%) VIX: $16-19 (-25 to -11%) SCENARIO C — Stagflation Reset TLT: $82-85 (-5 to -2%) GLD: $460-480 (+5 to +10%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Semiconductors (SMH +3.3%) — strong 2. Consumer Disc (XLY +1.9%) — rotating 3. Copper Miners (COPX +1.8%) — bid 4. Energy (XLE -1.9%) — dump 5. Healthcare (XLV -1.6%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

VIX 21.33 (+10.9%) — Fear gauge signals calm ahead of inflation data despite geopolitical stress WTI 104.99 (+8.7%) — US announces Hormuz blockade following failed Iran talks AAVE 92.82 (+3.0%) — Chaos Labs stepping down as risk manager after 3-year tenure TKMS 82.90 (-7.1%) — Defense contractor selloff despite Middle East tensions ADA 0.24 (-3.0%) — Adam Back denial of Satoshi claims weighs on crypto sentiment Cross-asset dislocation emerges as energy reprices war risk while equities ignore geopolitical premium

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: +$531.0M (13-day streak) — institutional demand remains robust Whale activity: BTC shorts dominate ($23.8M vs $7.4M longs), ETH positioning mixed HYPE seeing concentrated shorting (-$1.2M PnL) as ETF filings create volatility

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in energy-crypto pair trade if geopolitical premium fades. VIX disconnect from oil surge suggests equity complacency vulnerable to energy shock transmission through inflation expectations. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Apr 13, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $71,976 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: BULL_REGIME • ETH: $2,221 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: BULL_REGIME • SOL: $83.33 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: BULL_REGIME

WHALE ALERTS

• 50,530,000.05 USDC ($50,503,219) burned at USDC Treasury • 115,999,945 USDT ($116,008,064) transferred from #Aave to unknown wallet • 89,829,585 XRP ($119,202,240) transferred from unknown wallet to #Coinbase FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • ARIA: 1473% net APR (0.1140% rate) Long Binance / Short Bybit | OI: $8.3M | Spread: -1.36%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $51,331,146 | Longs: 27% | L/S: 0.4:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ Iran War Risk and Geopolitical Tensions [OIL, USD, CHF] — Crypto Institutional Shift [BTC, ETH, XRP] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice