April 14, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Apr 14, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · OVERHEATING · Gauge: 0/100 • BTC:

$74,337

• ETH:

$2,368

• SOL:

$86.21

• GOLD:

$4,745

SPY: $686.1 (+0.9%) QQQ: $617.39 (+1.2%) VIX: 19.1 (-0.6%) TLT: $86.75 (+0.1%) DXY: 98.4 (-0.5%) OIL: $96.95 (-2.1%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.18T (YoY -2.98%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 290bps CALM (5d: -27bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▲ HY Credit Spread: -2.27σ ▼ WTI Crude Oil: +2.24σ ▲ WTREGEN: -2.19σ ▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +2.00σ ▲ IG Credit Spread: -1.79σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▲ ETH: +5.0% ▲ NVDA: +2.7% ▲ SOL: +2.6% ▲ BTC: +1.5%

TOP MOVERS

▼ BUIDL $0.00006407 (-7.8%) ▲ ALGO $0.1108 (+6.8%) ▲ MORPHO $1.81 (+6.5%) ▲ SOXX $393 (+3.9%) ▲ MOH $150 (+3.4%) ▲ SMH $443 (+3.0%) ▲ WPP $251 (+2.8%) ▲ XLK $146 (+2.5%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 1/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds ▼ Oil: $114 (>$110) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — April 14, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on momentum driven by Iran deal optimism and crypto institutional flows. Tech/semis leading with +3% while energy sells off -2.6% on geopolitical premium fade. Cross-asset dislocation as BTC hits $74K amid $531M ETF inflows while oil dumps on Trump diplomacy headlines.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 0.0/100 (Calm) Regime: OVERHEATING — liquidity expansion (+3.7) offset by tightening financial conditions Key prices: SPY +0.9% | QQQ +1.2% | VIX -2.9% | TLT +0.1% | DXY -0.2% | OIL -2.6% ICSA: 219K (neutral, flat trend)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Iran Deal Completion BTC: $78-82K (+4-10%) SPY: $720-750 (+5-9%) OIL: $85-90 (-12-7%) SCENARIO B — Energy Inflation Shock OIL: $105-115 (+9-19%) TLT: $82-85 (-5-2%) SPY: $650-670 (-5-2%) SCENARIO C — Tech Momentum Extension QQQ: $650-680 (+5-10%) BTC: $70-75K (-6-0%) VIX: 15-17 (-19-8%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. COPX (+4.1%) — strong 2. SMH (+3.0%) — rotating 3. XLK (+2.5%) — bid 4. URA (+2.5%) — strong 5. XLE (-0.4%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

MORPHO +6.5% �� geothermal development deals driving energy transition plays ETH +5.0% — Aave V4 launch showing $13.5M TVL in 14 days, DeFi infrastructure momentum AAVE +4.4% — V4 protocol upgrade capturing institutional DeFi adoption SOXX +3.9% — semiconductor strength on AI infrastructure demand OIL -2.6% — Trump announces Iran wants deal, geopolitical premium unwinding VIX -2.9% — risk-off hedges being sold as diplomacy headlines emerge Crypto surging on institutional flows while energy dumps on geopolitical de-escalation, creating tactical rotation opportunity.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: +$531M inflow (13-day streak) — institutional FOMO accelerating Whale positioning: ETH longs $148.5M vs $52.6M shorts, +$14.6M PnL suggests momentum continuation BTC whales: $65.3M long-only positioning with 40x max leverage indicates conviction

IMPLICATION

Tactical long crypto/short energy spread if Iran diplomacy progresses. Semiconductor strength suggests AI infrastructure theme intact, but energy inflation risk requires TLT hedge if talks fail. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Apr 14, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $74,750 — 1d: IGNITION | 4h: IGNITION • ETH: $2,343 — 1d: IGNITION | 4h: IGNITION • SOL: $85.6 — 1d: IGNITION | 4h: IGNITION

WHALE ALERTS

• 1,985 BTC ($150,567,719) transferred from #Coinbase to unknown wallet • 250,000,000 USDC ($249,821,250) minted at USDC Treasury • 670 BTC ($50,639,269) transferred from #Coinbase to unknown wallet FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • RAVE: 5362% net APR (0.5000% rate) Long Binance / Short OKX | OI: $34.4M | Spread: -2.77%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $270,461,828 | Longs: 6% | L/S: 0.1:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▲ Bitcoin Institutional Adoption Surge [BTC, ETH, COIN] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice