April 12, 2026 — The Record

03:15

RADAR

MACRO RADAR 03:15 UTC #

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · Gauge —/100

EXPANSION. F&G: —. NORMAL.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MACRO RADAR — Apr 12, 2026 ▲ Risk-On · Neutral · EXPANSION · Gauge: 0/100 • BTC:

$71,836

• ETH:

$2,226

• SOL:

$82.73

• GOLD:

$4,760

SPY: $679.46 (+0.5%) QQQ: $611.07 (+0.8%) VIX: 19.2 (-1.3%) TLT: $86.49 (-0.5%) DXY: 98.7 (-0.2%) OIL: $96.57 (-1.3%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.05T (YoY -2.98%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 294bps CALM (5d: -22bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +2.53σ ▲ HY Credit Spread: -2.41σ ▼ WTI Crude Oil: +2.24σ ▲ WTREGEN: -2.19σ ▼ Fed Balance Sheet: +2.00σ

TOP MOVERS

▲ TON $1.43 (+9.2%) ▼ TKMS $82.90 (-7.1%) ▼ RAIN $0.007648 (-6.4%) ▲ JST $0.07372 (+5.8%) ▲ EWZ $41.33 (+4.5%) ▲ SOXX $387 (+4.4%) ▲ SMH $437 (+3.3%) ▲ ILF $37.82 (+2.8%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK ▲: 1/6 —

NORMAL

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds ▼ Oil: $114 (>$110) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

09:15

SIGNAL

SIGNAL SCAN 09:15 UTC #

SIGNAL SCAN — Apr 12, 2026

Risk 0/100 · 8 movers

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

SIGNAL SCAN — April 12, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-on rally as BTC ETFs post $789M weekly inflows and US-Iran talks show progress. Tech leads with semiconductors +1.5% while defensive sectors lag. Cross-asset divergence emerging as inflation persistence challenges Fed dovish pivot expectations.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 0.0/100 (Calm) Regime: EXPANSION — Liquidity expanding +3.7 with HY spreads tightening Key prices: SPY +0.5% | QQQ +0.8% | VIX -1.3% | TLT -0.5% | DXY +0.05% | OIL flat ICSA: 219K (flat trend, +0.86σ)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Diplomatic Breakthrough BTC: $75K-78K (+5-9%) SPY: $695-715 (+2-5%) VIX: $16-18 (-15-7%) SCENARIO B — Stagflation Persistence TLT: $82-84 (-5-3%) DXY: $101-103 (+2-4%) OIL: $105-110 (+9-14%) SCENARIO C — Tech Correction QQQ: $580-595 (-5-3%) BTC: $65K-68K (-9-5%) VIX: $25-30 (+30-56%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Copper Miners (COPX +2.4%) — strong 2. Semiconductors (SMH +1.5%) — bid 3. Materials (XLB +0.6%) — rotating 4. Biotech (XBI -1.8%) — dump 5. Healthcare (XLV -1.4%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

NET $167 (-13.5%) — Tech selloff on quantum computing disruption concerns UMAC $13.7 (+10.4%) — Accelerated motor factory output at Orlando campus TON $1.43 (+9.2%) — Macro optimism from live analyst coverage SNOW $121 (-8.4%) — Broader cloud software rotation amid AI disruption fears NIO $6.5 (+7.1%) — EV recovery on China stimulus speculation ADA $0.24 (-3.9%) — Quantum resistance narrative fading Risk asset divergence widening as crypto absorbs diplomatic optimism while enterprise software reprices AI displacement risk.

POSITIONING

BTC whales net short $70M with 5 positions averaging 40x leverage — contrarian signal amid retail euphoria. BTC ETF inflows hit 13-day streak at +$531M, highest institutional demand since February. XRP and HYPE seeing concentrated long positioning on quantum resistance themes.

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity in long crypto vs defensive tech if diplomatic progress accelerates, but inflation persistence limits Fed accommodation. Consider hedging growth exposure through VIX calls given late-cycle positioning signals and whale contrarian bets. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

15:15

PULSE

MARKET PULSE 15:15 UTC #

BTC DISTRIBUTION on daily. 100 whale moves detected.

BTC 1d:Distribution 4h:Risk-Off · ETH 1d:Bullish 4h:Bearish · SOL 1d:Distribution 4h:Risk-Off

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET PULSE — Apr 12, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $70,833 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF • ETH: $2,184 — 1d: BULL_REGIME | 4h: BEAR_REGIME • SOL: $81.78 — 1d: DISTRIBUTION | 4h: RISK_OFF

WHALE ALERTS

• 102,866,857 USDC ($102,864,370) transferred from unknown wallet to #Aave • 102,837,488 USDC ($102,822,191) transferred from #Aave to unknown wallet • 250,000,000 USDC ($249,937,375) minted at USDC Treasury FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • RAVE: 1953% net APR (0.8020% rate) Long Bybit / Short Bitget | OI: $29.5M | Spread: -0.60%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $103,248,168 | Longs: 64% | L/S: 1.8:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ US-Iran Diplomatic Failure Fuels War Premium [BTC, ETH, OIL] — Crypto Market Structural Shift Despite ETF Inflows [BTC, ETH, XRP] ▲ Quantum Computing Threat Reshapes Crypto Preferences [ZEC, XRP, BTC] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

21:15

WRAP

MARKET WRAP 21:15 UTC #

Markets rallied on geopolitical tensions driving haven demand into both traditional gold and digital…

EXPANSION. 16 news items. 5 scenario shifts.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET WRAP — Apr 12, 2026 Markets rallied on geopolitical tensions driving haven demand into both traditional gold and digital assets, with Bitcoin ETF flows amplifying crypto's momentum despite mixed institutional signals. The late-cycle rotation into hard assets accelerated as hegemony concerns and quantum displacement themes overshadowed lingering inflation fears.

CLOSING PRICES

BTC: $71,244 · ETH: $2,208 · SOL: $82.54 · GOLD: $4,760 · SPY: $679.46 (+0.5%) · QQQ: $611.07 (+0.8%) · VIX: $19.23 (-1.3%) · TLT: $86.49 (-0.5%) · DXY: $98.7 (+0.0%) · OIL: $96.57 (+0.0%)

SECTOR CLOSE

▲ SMH (Semiconductors) +11.4% · COPX (Copper Miners) +8.7% · XLB (Materials) +3.1% ▼ XLE (Energy) -3.9% · XLV (Healthcare) +0.3% · XLP (Consumer Staples) +0.6%

SIGNALS

— Crypto / Bitcoin (intensity 71) — BTC, ETH

EVENING NEWS

▲ Finally an easy-going weekend ▲ Forint Jumps to Three-Year High as Hungary’s Orban Is Voted Out ▲ Hungary’s Orbán concedes defeat as opposition heads for landslide win ▼ Bond Traders Snap Back to Inflation as Higher-for-Longer Sets In ▲ Stablecoin Forecasts Stretch Higher as Bessent Presses for U.S. Crypto Clarity ▼ Justin Sun calls out WLFI, platform threatens lawsuit in response

SCENARIO SHIFTS

▲ Late Cycle: Geopolitical tensions and inflation surge suggest economic cycle maturation ▼ Goldilocks: Inflation resurgence and geopolitical risks disrupting balanced growth narrative ▲ Stagflation: Energy-driven inflation with war fueling persistent price pressures ▼ Hegemony: Failed diplomatic talks suggest weakening US influence in Middle East ▲ Displacement: Quantum resistance focus and institutional blockchain adoption accelerating

REGIME CHECK

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · EXPANSION · Gauge: 0/100

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

US Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 24, 06:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.4%) US Retail sales (MoM)(Mar) — Apr 21, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 0.6%) US New home sales (AAMR)(Feb) — Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: -17.6%) EU Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Final)(Mar) — Apr 16, 09:00 AM UTC (prev: 2.5%) EU Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Final)(Mar) — Apr 16, 09:00 AM UTC (prev: 1.2%) Total retail sales of consumer goods (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 16, 02:00 AM UTC (prev: 2.8%)

CONTRARIAN

• Bhutan's 70% bitcoin liquidation might signal sovereign wealth diversification strategy rather than • Privacy coin surge on quantum fears may be premature given current quantum computing timeline limita agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

April 12, 2026 — The Record

▲ Risk-On · Neutral · Gauge —/100

$71,836

$2,226

$82.73

$4,760

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

TOP MOVERS

NORMAL

SIGNAL SCAN — Apr 12, 2026

SNAPSHOT

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SECTOR STRENGTH

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

POSITIONING

IMPLICATION

BTC DISTRIBUTION on daily. 100 whale moves detected.

CRYPTO

WHALE ALERTS

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

SCENARIO

INTEL

Markets rallied on geopolitical tensions driving haven demand into both traditional gold and digital…

CLOSING PRICES

SECTOR CLOSE

SIGNALS

EVENING NEWS

SCENARIO SHIFTS

REGIME CHECK

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

CONTRARIAN

72H TRACK RECORD

About this day in The Record