March 31, 2026 — The Record

03:15

RADAR

MACRO RADAR 03:15 UTC #

▼ Risk-Off · Neutral · Gauge 71.4/100

RECOVERY. F&G: —. WATCH.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MACRO RADAR — Mar 31, 2026 ▼ Risk-Off · Neutral · RECOVERY · Gauge: 71.4/100 • BTC:

$67,796

• ETH:

$2,068

• SOL:

$83.72

• GOLD:

$4,515

SPY: $631.97 (-2.0%) QQQ: $558.28 (-2.7%) VIX: 30.6 (-1.4%) TLT: $86.78 (+0.8%) DXY: 100.4 (+0.3%) OIL: $102.05 (-0.8%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.02T (YoY -3.3%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 321bps CALM (5d: -6bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +2.58σ ▼ 10Y Real Rate: +1.96σ ▲ 2s10s Curve: -1.85σ ▼ 2Y Treasury: +1.81σ ▼ 10Y Treasury: +1.69σ

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

▼ NVDA: -10.3% ▲ ETH: +2.2% ▲ BTC: +1.8% ▲ SOL: +1.2%

TOP MOVERS

▲ SKY $0.07827 (+7.2%) ▼ SOXX $310 (-5.8%) ▼ MOH $131 (-5.3%) ▼ SMH $363 (-4.8%) ▲ SLV $63.52 (+4.5%) ▼ ITA $211 (-4.2%) ▲ DASH $33.03 (+4.2%) ▲ ETHFI $0.4774 (+3.4%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds ▼ USD Index: 120.2757 (>110) — Gold: $4515 (<$4,600) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

09:15

SIGNAL

SIGNAL SCAN 09:15 UTC #

SIGNAL SCAN — Mar 31, 2026

Risk 71.4/100 · 8 movers

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

SIGNAL SCAN — March 31, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off dominates as geopolitical tensions drive broad equity selloff, wiping out Asian gains. Tech getting crushed while precious metals surge on inflation fears. Mixed regime with crypto showing relative resilience amid institutional momentum.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 71.4/100 (Elevated) Regime: TRANSITIONAL STAGFLATION — war-driven inflation fears with growth concerns Key prices: SPY -2.0%, QQQ -2.7%, VIX -5.3%, TLT +0.8%, DXY -0.1%, OIL -0.7% ICSA: 210K (trending down, z-score -0.35)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Geopolitical Escalation SPY: $570-600 (-10-15%) BTC: $56-60K (-10-15%) OIL: $115-125 (+13-22%) SCENARIO B — De-escalation Rally SPY: $660-690 (+5-9%) BTC: $72-78K (+8-17%) VIX: $18-22 (-38-24%) SCENARIO C — Stagflation Grind TLT: $82-85 (-6-2%) GLD: $430-450 (+4-9%) DXY: $103-106 (+3-6%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Utilities (XLU +1.3%) — defensive 2. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.9%) — flight 3. Energy (XLE +0.7%) — war premium 4. Semiconductors (SMH -4.8%) — dump 5. Technology (XLK -3.8%) — rotation

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

SOXX -5.8% — semiconductor sector at crossroads, Intel/AMD weakness spreading SLV +4.5% — precious metals surge on inflation hedging demand VIX -5.3% — volatility compression despite risk-off backdrop suggesting complacency MOH -5.3% — Iran parliament speaker mocking Trump posts unnerves investors PENDLE +2.7% — DeFi yield protocols gaining traction amid rate uncertainty DOT +2.4% — bridgeless capital markets announcement with Solana integration Cross-asset divergence as metals reprice stagflation while tech absorbs war premium discount.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: -$645.8M outflow (high significance) Whale positioning: BTC shorts dominate at 130.7M vs 53.4M longs, ETH purely short bias Contrarian signal: Bitcoin 'underwater' levels may signal buying opportunity per historical patterns

IMPLICATION

Tactical tilt toward defensive sectors and precious metals while geopolitical premium persists. BTC ETF outflows creating potential entry point if de-escalation materializes, but semiconductor weakness suggests broader tech rotation underway. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

15:15

PULSE

MARKET PULSE 15:15 UTC #

BTC BEAR_REGIME 1D / ACCUMULATION 4H. 100 whale moves detected.

BTC 1d:Bearish 4h:Accumulation · ETH 1d:Bearish 4h:Bullish · SOL 1d:Bearish 4h:Accumulation

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET PULSE — Mar 31, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $67,111 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: ACCUMULATION • ETH: $2,071 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: BULL_REGIME • SOL: $81.17 — 1d: BEAR_REGIME | 4h: ACCUMULATION

WHALE ALERTS

• 50,000,000.05 USDC ($50,010,625) burned at USDC Treasury • 50,000,000.05 USDC ($50,010,125) burned at USDC Treasury • 50,000,000 USDC ($50,007,625) burned at USDC Treasury

FUNDING ARB

No quality arbs today (all below OI/spread filters)

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $120,358,617 | Longs: 56% | L/S: 1.3:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↑ Recession · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▲ Bitcoin Institutional Momentum [BTC, COIN, HOOD] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

21:15

WRAP

MARKET WRAP 21:15 UTC #

Markets displayed cautious optimism as geopolitical tensions eased, but underlying inflation concern…

RECOVERY. 18 news items. 5 scenario shifts.

▾EXPAND BRIEF CONTENT

MARKET WRAP — Mar 31, 2026 Markets displayed cautious optimism as geopolitical tensions eased, but underlying inflation concerns and crypto weakness kept risk appetite in check. The elevated VIX at 25.25 alongside recovery-phase positioning suggests investors are navigating between improving sentiment and persistent macro uncertainties around growth and pricing pressures.

CLOSING PRICES

BTC: $68,190 · ETH: $2,105 · SOL: $83.05 · GOLD: $4,682 · SPY: $650.34 (+2.6%) · QQQ: $577.18 (+2.6%) · VIX: $25.25 (-17.5%) · TLT: $86.69 (+1.2%) · DXY: $99.89 (-0.6%) · OIL: $101.56 (-1.3%)

SECTOR CLOSE

▲ XBI (Biotech) +6.8% · XLE (Energy) -1.2% · XLU (Utilities) +0.9% ▼ COPX (Copper Miners) +3.0% · ITA (Aerospace/Defense) -2.1% · URA (Uranium) -0.2%

SIGNALS

— Crypto / Bitcoin (intensity 100) — BTC, ETH — Defense / Geopolitics (intensity 59) — ITA, LMT, RTX — Iran / Middle East (intensity 50) — Oil / Energy (intensity 44) — XLE, USO, OXY

EVENING NEWS

▼ Bond Traders Ditch Inflation Bets as Oil Surge Threatens Growth ▼ UK submarine captain steps down after link to Chinese spy case ▼ What's next after bitcoin's historic underperformance stretch against stocks ▲ OpenAI raises $3bn from retail investors as part of record funding haul ▲ Crypto Market First Major Outflow In 5 Weeks – Here’s How Bitcoin And Ethereum Performed ▲ Elon Musk Highlights a Surprising Silver Lining of Looming Crypto Quantum Breakthrough

SCENARIO SHIFTS

▲ Late Cycle: Oil surge and crypto weakness signal late-cycle dynamics ▲ Goldilocks: Geopolitical easing and AI investment support soft landing narrative ▲ Stagflation: Oil surge threatening growth while maintaining inflation pressures ▲ Hegemony: Geopolitical tensions easing supports US market dominance ▲ Displacement: AI funding surge and crypto quantum concerns accelerate tech displacement

REGIME CHECK

▼ Risk-Off · Neutral · RECOVERY · Gauge: 71.4/100

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary)(Apr) — Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: 53.3) US Unseasonally Adjusted Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 10, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.4%) US Core Consumer Price Index (Unseasonally Adjusted) (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 10, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.5%) Consumer Price Index for Residents (YoY)(Mar) — Apr 10, 01:30 AM UTC (prev: 1.3%) US Personal consumption expenditure price index (MoM)(Feb) — Apr 9, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 0.3%) US Personal consumption expenditure price index (AQR)(Final)(Q4) — Apr 9, 12:30 PM UTC (prev: 2.8%)

CONTRARIAN

• Crypto's underperformance vs stocks might be healthy consolidation before institutional adoption acc • Bond traders ditching inflation bets could be premature given persistent energy cost pressures globa agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

March 31, 2026 — The Record

▼ Risk-Off · Neutral · Gauge 71.4/100

$67,796

$2,068

$83.72

$4,515

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

OVERNIGHT vs US CLOSE

TOP MOVERS

WATCH

SIGNAL SCAN — Mar 31, 2026

SNAPSHOT

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SECTOR STRENGTH

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

POSITIONING

IMPLICATION

BTC BEAR_REGIME 1D / ACCUMULATION 4H. 100 whale moves detected.

CRYPTO

WHALE ALERTS

FUNDING ARB

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

SCENARIO

INTEL

Markets displayed cautious optimism as geopolitical tensions eased, but underlying inflation concern…

CLOSING PRICES

SECTOR CLOSE

SIGNALS

EVENING NEWS

SCENARIO SHIFTS

REGIME CHECK

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT

CONTRARIAN

72H TRACK RECORD

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