March 30, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 30, 2026 ▼ Risk-Off · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 71.4/100 • BTC:

$67,056

• ETH:

$2,028

• SOL:

$83.28

• GOLD:

$4,516

SPY: $634.09 (-3.5%) QQQ: $562.58 (-4.3%) VIX: 31.1 (+13.2%) TLT: $85.64 (-1.4%) DXY: 100.1 (-0.0%) OIL: $101.46 (+1.8%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

▼ Global CB Liquidity: $18.06T (YoY -3.31%) US M2: $22.67T (YoY +4.88%) ▲ HY Credit Spreads: 321bps CALM (5d: -6bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

▼ 30Y Mortgage Rate: +2.58σ ▼ 10Y Real Rate: +1.96σ ▲ 2s10s Curve: -1.85σ ▼ 2Y Treasury: +1.81σ ▼ 10Y Treasury: +1.69σ

TOP MOVERS

▲ VIX $31.05 (+13.2%) ▼ TKMS $72.70 (-10.0%) ▼ BUIDL $0.00006476 (-8.8%) ▼ SOXX $323 (-6.3%) ▼ SMH $374 (-6.2%) ▼ EWY $121 (-5.3%) ▲ TAO $331 (+4.3%) ▲ CHZ $0.04096 (+4.3%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds ▼ USD Index: 120.2757 (>110) — Gold: $4516 (<$4,600) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 30, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off regime with stagflationary undertones as equities tumble while commodities surge. BTC slides to $66K amid record leverage buildup while Fed repricing accelerates on inflation fears. Cross-asset dislocation suggests regime transition underway.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 71.4/100 (High) Regime: STAGFLATION — Real yields rising amid expanding liquidity creating policy uncertainty SPY: -3.5% | QQQ: -4.3% | VIX: -1.4% | TLT: -1.4% | DXY: +0.1% | OIL: +1.4% ICSA: 210K (down, z-score -0.35)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Fed Pivot Delay BTC: $60-63K (-7 to -11%) SPY: $600-615 (-3 to -6%) OIL: $105-110 (+4 to +9%) SCENARIO B — Geopolitical Escalation GOLD: $4700-4850 (+4 to +7%) BTC: $64-67K (-5 to -1%) VIX: $35-40 (+15 to +31%) SCENARIO C — Leverage Unwind Accelerates BTC: $58-62K (-9 to -14%) ETH: $1850-1950 (-10 to -5%) QQQ: $530-550 (-6 to -2%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Energy (XLE +1.7%) — strong 2. Copper Miners (COPX +1.0%) — bid 3. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.8%) — rotating 4. Biotech (XBI -3.5%) — dump 5. Consumer Disc (XLY -2.9%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

UMAC $11.78 (-12.4%) — Drone program launch disappoints, collaboration concerns SLV $63.44 (+4.4%) — Precious metals bid on stagflation fears, Iran tensions FET $0.24 (+5.1%) — AI infrastructure narrative gaining traction amid perplexity integrations UNI $3.49 (+4.2%) — DeFi rotation as institutional crypto exits create value opportunities KTOS $71.94 (-5.2%) — Defense sector selloff despite geopolitical backdrop Commodities outperforming crypto signals institutional preference shift toward hard assets over digital risk.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: -$645.8M outflow (high significance) Bitfinex BTC longs hit highest since Nov 2023 at 79.3K — contrarian signal emerging Whale data: BTC net long bias $63.9M vs $39.1M short, but ETH showing losses

IMPLICATION

Tactical fade crypto strength on retail leverage extremes while rotating toward commodities and defensive positioning. Monitor Fed pivot timeline as stagflation narrative builds momentum across traditional assets. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 30, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $67,614 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • ETH: $2,068 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • SOL: $84.19 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION

WHALE ALERTS

• 10,500 WETH ($21,744,932) transferred from #Aave to unknown wallet • 50,000,000 USDC ($50,007,525) burned at USDC Treasury • 861 BTC ($58,109,515) transferred from unknown wallet to #Okex FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • ONT: 669% net APR (0.0760% rate) Long Bybit / Short OKX | OI: $6.3M | Spread: -0.07% • RIVER: 280% net APR (0.0863% rate) Long Binance / Short Bybit | OI: $25.8M | Spread: -0.31%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $145,817,416 | Longs: 62% | L/S: 1.6:1

SCENARIO

↑ Late Cycle · ↓ Goldilocks · ↑ Stagflation · ↑ Hegemony · ↑ Displacement

INTEL

▼ Crypto Price Volatility Amid Leverage Concerns [BTC, ETH, XRP] ▲ European Banking Crypto Integration [BTC, ETH] ▼ Inflation and Rate Hike Expectations [SPY, QQQ, BTC] agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice