March 13, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 13, 2026 🟡 Neutral · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 78/100 • BTC:

$71,389

• ETH:

$2,118

• SOL:

$89.7

• GOLD:

$5,088

SPY: $666.06 (-1.6%) QQQ: $597.26 (-1.7%) VIX: 27.3 (+9.5%) TLT: $86.97 (-1.5%) DXY: 99.8 (+0.0%) OIL: $95.51 (-0.2%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

[-] Global CB Liquidity: $18.15T (YoY -3.43%) US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%) [+] HY Credit Spreads: 306bps CALM (5d: -2bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

[-] WTI Crude Oil: +2.80σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +2.15σ [-] DTWEXBGS: +1.96σ [-] 2Y Treasury: +1.60σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: -1.52σ

TOP MOVERS

[+] FET $0.1887 (+18.4%) [+] RENDER $1.76 (+17.3%) [-] TRMD $24.66 (-9.5%) [+] VIX $27.29 (+9.5%) [-] GEMI $7.87 (-8.5%) [-] PATH $11.37 (-8.2%) [-] WPP $235 (-8.2%) [+] NEAR $1.39 (+7.8%) — Aluminum Near Four-Year High as War Risks Smelter Closures HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds [-] USD Index: 119.491 (>110) [~] 2Y Yield: 3.57% (<3.6%) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 13th, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Risk-off deepening as stagflationary pressures mount with DXY strength and VIX spiking to 27. Middle East tensions driving energy higher while broad risk assets liquidate. Cross-asset divergence widening as institutions flee duration and equities simultaneously.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 78.0/100 (High) Regime: STAGFLATION — financial conditions tightening as USD strengthens into rising inflation expectations Key prices: SPY -1.6% | QQQ -1.7% | VIX +8.2% | TLT -1.5% | DXY +0.4% | OIL -0.2% ICSA: 213K (trending down, Z-score -0.08)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Geopolitical Escalation SPY: $600-630 (-5% to -10%) BTC: $65K-68K (-5% to -10%) OIL: $105-115 (+10% to +20%) SCENARIO B — Stagflation Pivot TLT: $75-80 (-10% to -13%) DXY: $103-106 (+3% to +6%) GOLD: $430-450 (-5% to -8%) SCENARIO C — Risk Asset Bounce SPY: $680-700 (+2% to +5%) BTC: $75K-78K (+4% to +8%) VIX: $20-23 (-20% to -26%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Energy (XLE +3.4%) — bid 2. Utilities (XLU -0.1%) — defensive 3. Materials (XLB -0.4%) — weak 4. Technology (XLK -1.4%) — dump 5. Industrials (XLI -2.8%) — rotating

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

FET $0.189 (+18.4%) — AI token momentum amid NATO defense escalation RENDER $1.76 (+17.3%) — Turkey NATO missile intercepts boosting defense-adjacent crypto VIX $26.98 (+8.2%) — Iran tanker attacks triggering vol spike across risk assets NEAR $1.39 (+7.8%) — Trump oil refinery announcement lifting energy-adjacent protocols TRMD $24.67 (-9.5%) — broad risk-off hitting small caps hardest PATH $11.37 (-8.2%) — dollar milkshake thesis pressuring growth names Crypto outperforming traditional risk assets as institutions view BTC as geopolitical hedge rather than risk-on play.

POSITIONING

Whale flow: BTC longs $31.7M vs shorts $77.2M, net PnL -$8K across 6 positions ETH positioning: $87.7M short interest, -$2.99M PnL suggests capitulation phase BTC ETF flows: +$125M inflow (day 1 of streak) — institutions buying the war premium

IMPLICATION

Tactical opportunity emerging in crypto vs traditional risk given institutional BTC flows during geopolitical stress. Consider energy/crypto barbell if Middle East tensions persist while monitoring DXY 103 resistance for broader risk sentiment shift. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 13, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $71,787 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • ETH: $2,131 — 1d: IGNITION | 4h: IGNITION • SOL: $89.63 — 1d: ACCUMULATION | 4h: DISTRIBUTION

WHALE ALERTS

• 1,000 BTC ($72,608,510) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit • 1,000 BTC ($72,608,510) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit • 1,000 BTC ($72,546,834) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • PIXEL: 563% net APR (0.2388% rate) Long Binance / Short Bybit | OI: $8.7M | Spread: -0.17% • PIPPIN: 335% net APR (0.1748% rate) Long Bybit / Short OKX | OI: $7.7M | Spread: 0.07%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $171,601,157 | Longs: 22% | L/S: 0.3:1 agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice