March 12, 2026 — The Record

MACRO RADAR — Mar 12, 2026 🟡 Neutral · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 78/100 • BTC:

$69,555

• ETH:

$2,025

• SOL:

$85.12

• GOLD:

$5,183

SPY: $676.33 (-0.3%) QQQ: $607.69 (-0.0%) VIX: 24.2 (-5.0%) TLT: $87.14 (-2.3%) DXY: 99.5 (+0.2%) OIL: $94.15 (+7.9%)

LIQUIDITY & CREDIT

[-] Global CB Liquidity: $18.13T (YoY -3.5%) US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%) [+] HY Credit Spreads: 306bps CALM (5d: -2bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES

[-] WTI Crude Oil: +2.80σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +2.15σ [-] DTWEXBGS: +1.96σ [-] 2Y Treasury: +1.60σ [+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: -1.57σ

TOP MOVERS

[+] IREN $41.94 (+10.2%) [+] ORCL $163 (+9.1%) [+] WTI $94.46 (+8.3%) [+] OIL $94.15 (+7.9%) — February CPI Holds at 2.4% as Oil Shock Complicates Fed Rate [+] ICP $2.57 (+7.5%) [-] GEMI $8.60 (-7.4%) [+] HYPE $35.96 (+3.9%) [+] FET $0.1592 (+2.8%) HEGEMONY SNAPBACK : 1.5/6 —

WATCH

If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds [-] USD Index: 119.491 (>110) [~] 2Y Yield: 3.57% (<3.6%) agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 12, 2026

SNAPSHOT

Stagflationary backdrop with cross-asset tension. Energy rips on Iran-Strait tensions while bonds dump on sticky inflation expectations. Semis lead despite crypto/equity mixed signals as AI infrastructure spending accelerates.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD

Risk Gauge: 78.0/100 (High) Regime: STAGFLATION — inflation expectations rising while USD strengthens on geopolitical risk SPY: $676.33 (-0.29%) QQQ: $607.69 (-0.01%) VIX: $24.96 (-2.12%) TLT: $87.14 (-2.34%) DXY: $99.30 (+0.07%) OIL: $91.20 (+4.53%) ICSA: 213K (trend down, -0.08 z-score)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Geopolitical Escalation BTC: $64K-66K (-6% to -9%) OIL: $98-105 (+7% to +15%) SPY: $645-660 (-2% to -5%) TLT: $90-93 (+3% to +7%) SCENARIO B — Iran Tensions Fade OIL: $82-87 (-10% to -5%) SPY: $690-710 (+2% to +5%) BTC: $72K-76K (+3% to +9%) TLT: $82-85 (-6% to -3%)

SECTOR STRENGTH

1. Semiconductors (SMH +1.69%) — strong 2. Energy (XLE +1.17%) — bid 3. Uranium (URA +0.57%) — rotating 4. Technology (XLK +0.48%) — steady 5. Financials (XLF -1.37%) — weak

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS

IREN $41.94 (+10.2%) — NVIDIA AI infrastructure investments boosting bitcoin mining exposure ORCL $163.33 (+9.1%) — earnings beat as enterprise AI spending accelerates WTI $94.46 (+8.3%) — Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz after striking Thai vessel ICP $2.57 (+7.5%) — AI infrastructure narrative spillover HYPE $35.96 (+3.9%) — Hyperliquid derivatives ATH open interest AI infrastructure spend driving energy-intensive sectors while geopolitical premium reprices commodity curves.

POSITIONING

BTC ETF flows: -$375.3M outflow (high significance) Whale positioning: BTC longs $31.9M vs shorts $36.8M (+$14.4M PnL), ETH heavily short-skewed $72M vs $14.4M longs (-$1.1M PnL), HYPE long-biased $51.9M vs $12.4M shorts but underwater -$2.8M

IMPLICATION

Tactical long energy/semis vs bonds captures stagflationary regime shift. BTC weakness despite whale profits suggests institutional rotation into AI infrastructure plays over store-of-value positioning. agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 12, 2026

CRYPTO

• BTC: $70,044 — 1d: RISK_OFF | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • ETH: $2,062 — 1d: RISK_OFF | 4h: DISTRIBUTION • SOL: $86.27 — 1d: RISK_OFF | 4h: DISTRIBUTION

WHALE ALERTS

• 90,000,000 USDC ($89,995,365) burned at USDC Treasury • 90,000,000 USDC ($89,993,899) minted at USDC Treasury • 719 BTC ($50,023,679) transferred from #Binance to unknown wallet FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%) • PIPPIN: 458% net APR (0.2275% rate) Long Bybit / Short OKX | OI: $8.3M | Spread: 0.05%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)

• Total: $60,752,199 | Longs: 52% | L/S: 1.1:1 agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice