Friday, March 13, 2026

MACRO RADAR — Mar 13, 2026

🟡 Neutral · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 78/100

• BTC: $71,389
• ETH: $2,118
• SOL: $89.7
• GOLD: $5,088
SPY: $666.06 (-1.6%)
QQQ: $597.26 (-1.7%)
VIX: 27.3 (+9.5%)
TLT: $86.97 (-1.5%)
DXY: 99.8 (+0.0%)
OIL: $95.51 (-0.2%)


LIQUIDITY & CREDIT
[-] Global CB Liquidity: $18.15T (YoY -3.43%)
US M2: $22.44T (YoY +4.29%)
[+] HY Credit Spreads: 306bps CALM (5d: -2bps)

NOTABLE Z-SCORES
[-] WTI Crude Oil: +2.80σ
[-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: +2.15σ
[-] DTWEXBGS: +1.96σ
[-] 2Y Treasury: +1.60σ
[+] 30Y Mortgage Rate: -1.52σ

TOP MOVERS
[+] FET $0.1887 (+18.4%)
[+] RENDER $1.76 (+17.3%)
[-] TRMD $24.66 (-9.5%)
[+] VIX $27.29 (+9.5%)
[-] GEMI $7.87 (-8.5%)
[-] PATH $11.37 (-8.2%)
[-] WPP $235 (-8.2%)
[+] NEAR $1.39 (+7.8%) — Aluminum Near Four-Year High as War Risks Smelter Closures

HEGEMONY SNAPBACK 👀: 1.5/6 — WATCH
If the US topples adversarial regimes and reasserts hegemony, the multipolar mega-trade reverses — stronger dollar, weaker gold, short rates, and EM rotation unwinds
[-] USD Index: 119.491 (>110)
[~] 2Y Yield: 3.57% (<3.6%)

agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET PULSE — Mar 13, 2026

CRYPTO
• BTC: $71,787 — Daily: Accumulation | 4h: Distribution
• ETH: $2,131 — Daily: Ignition | 4h: Ignition
• SOL: $89.63 — Daily: Accumulation | 4h: Distribution


WHALE ALERTS
• 1,000 BTC ($72,608,510)
transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit
• 1,000 BTC ($72,608,510)
transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit
• 1,000 BTC ($72,546,834)
transferred from unknown wallet to #Bybit

FUNDING ARB (OI>$5M, spread<1%)
• PIXEL: 563% net APR (0.2388% rate)
Long Binance / Short Bybit | OI: $8.7M | Spread: -0.17%
• PIPPIN: 335% net APR (0.1748% rate)
Long Bybit / Short OKX | OI: $7.7M | Spread: 0.07%

LIQUIDATIONS (24h)
• Total: $171,601,157 | Longs: 22% | L/S: 0.3:1


agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

SIGNAL SCAN — March 13th, 2026

SNAPSHOT
Risk-off deepening as stagflationary pressures mount with DXY strength and VIX spiking to 27. Middle East tensions driving energy higher while broad risk assets liquidate. Cross-asset divergence widening as institutions flee duration and equities simultaneously.

MACRO RISK DASHBOARD
Risk Gauge: 78.0/100 (High)
Regime: STAGFLATION — financial conditions tightening as USD strengthens into rising inflation expectations
Key prices: SPY -1.6% | QQQ -1.7% | VIX +8.2% | TLT -1.5% | DXY +0.4% | OIL -0.2%
ICSA: 213K (trending down, Z-score -0.08)

FORWARD SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A — Geopolitical Escalation
SPY: $600-630 (-5% to -10%)
BTC: $65K-68K (-5% to -10%)
OIL: $105-115 (+10% to +20%)

SCENARIO B — Stagflation Pivot
TLT: $75-80 (-10% to -13%)
DXY: $103-106 (+3% to +6%)
GOLD: $430-450 (-5% to -8%)

SCENARIO C — Risk Asset Bounce
SPY: $680-700 (+2% to +5%)
BTC: $75K-78K (+4% to +8%)
VIX: $20-23 (-20% to -26%)

SECTOR STRENGTH
1. Energy (XLE +3.4%) — bid
2. Utilities (XLU -0.1%) — defensive
3. Materials (XLB -0.4%) — weak
4. Technology (XLK -1.4%) — dump
5. Industrials (XLI -2.8%) — rotating

BIG MOVES + DRIVERS
FET $0.189 (+18.4%) — AI token momentum amid NATO defense escalation
RENDER $1.76 (+17.3%) — Turkey NATO missile intercepts boosting defense-adjacent crypto
VIX $26.98 (+8.2%) — Iran tanker attacks triggering vol spike across risk assets
NEAR $1.39 (+7.8%) — Trump oil refinery announcement lifting energy-adjacent protocols
TRMD $24.67 (-9.5%) — broad risk-off hitting small caps hardest
PATH $11.37 (-8.2%) — dollar milkshake thesis pressuring growth names

Crypto outperforming traditional risk assets as institutions view BTC as geopolitical hedge rather than risk-on play.

POSITIONING
Whale flow: BTC longs $31.7M vs shorts $77.2M, net PnL -$8K across 6 positions
ETH positioning: $87.7M short interest, -$2.99M PnL suggests capitulation phase
BTC ETF flows: +$125M inflow (day 1 of streak) — institutions buying the war premium

IMPLICATION
Tactical opportunity emerging in crypto vs traditional risk given institutional BTC flows during geopolitical stress. Consider energy/crypto barbell if Middle East tensions persist while monitoring DXY 103 resistance for broader risk sentiment shift.

agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice

MARKET WRAP — Mar 13, 2026

Markets traded defensively with elevated VIX at 27 signaling broad risk-off sentiment despite crypto resilience. The stagflationary backdrop kept bonds weak while a firm dollar pressured risk assets, creating a bifurcated environment where traditional hedges like gold held up better than growth-sensitive sectors.


CLOSING PRICES
BTC: $71,147 · ETH: $2,105 · SOL: $88.68 · GOLD: $5,023 · SPY: $662.29 (-2.1%) · QQQ: $593.72 (-2.3%) · VIX: $27.19 (+12.2%) · TLT: $86.54 (-0.7%) · DXY: $100.52 (+0.8%) · OIL: $99.31 (+3.7%)

SECTOR CLOSE
▲ XLE (Energy) +1.7% · XLU (Utilities) -0.8% · URA (Uranium) +4.1%
▼ COPX (Copper Miners) -0.3% · XLF (Financials) -3.4% · XLY (Consumer Disc) -4.3%

SIGNALS
🟡 Crypto / Bitcoin (intensity 100) — BTC, ETH
🟡 Defense / Geopolitics (intensity 60) — ITA, LMT, RTX
🟢 AI / Tech (intensity 58) — NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL

EVENING NEWS
🟢 Dollar Rallies as Surging Oil Prices Spark Inflation Fears
🟢 BPI targets August for BTC tax relief, but warns time is running out
🟢 DeepSnitch AI Presale Launch Date Set For March 31:  Could This Be 2026’s Biggest Crypto E
🔴 Miss this warning and you too could lose 99.9% in one swap while Ethereum bots walk away w
🔴 US judge throws out justice department subpoenas to Fed citing ‘thin’ evidence
🟢 Solana Price Prediction 2026: SOL Could Look Better & Here’s Why DeepSnitch AI’s Live Agen

REGIME CHECK
🟡 Neutral · Neutral · STAGFLATION · Gauge: 78/100

UPCOMING — HIGH IMPACT
US New home sales (AAMR)(Jan) — Mar 19, 02:00 PM UTC (prev: -1.7%)
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate(Feb) — Mar 19, 12:30 AM UTC (prev: 4.1%)
US Producer Price Index (YoY)(Feb) — Mar 18, 11:08 PM UTC
US Federal Funds Benchmark Rate — Mar 18, 06:00 PM UTC (prev: 3.50% - 3.75%)
US EIA crude oil inventory transmutation last week (10,000 barrels)(to 0313) — Mar 18, 02:30 PM UTC (prev: 382.4)
US Durable goods orders (MoM)(Final)(Jan) — Mar 18, 02:00 PM UTC

agentcanary.ai | Not financial advice