Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
MACRO RADAR · July 2, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 73.8/100 · Composite 42.7
Risk Gauge: 73.8/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 42.7/100 (MODERATE).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 73.8/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 42.7/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.82T (YoY -2.65%)
- US M2
- $23.05T (YoY +5.58%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 275bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 19 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15)
- BTC
- $60,375
- ETH
- $1,619
Crypto
BTC: $60,375 · ETH: $1,619 · SOL: $78.33 Crypto sentiment: 19 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 15) (rising).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.82T (YoY -2.65%) — fed $6.74T · ecb $6.98T · boj $4.11T US M2: $23.05T (YoY +5.58%) HY Credit Spreads: 275bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.06 (-4.7% 30d, UP — SOFTENING). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 412.1M bbl, refinery 96.1%, SPR 331M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.6% | QQQ +0.2% | VIX +0.9% | TLT -2.2% | DXY +0.2% | OIL -2.5%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ EWY: -6.1% ▲ KWEB: +3.4% ▲ BOTZ: +3.3% ▼ BRENT: -2.8% ▼ XLU: -2.7% ▼ WTI: -2.5%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.89 (R), Gold $4017 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] 10Y Treasury: -1.98σ [+] HY Credit Spread: +1.91σ [-] WTI Crude Oil: -1.84σ [-] 30Y Treasury: -1.69σ
US Open Setup
Overnight session favors leaning into financials and defense leadership while treating semiconductor weakness as a potential fade setup at the open. Energy softness and Korean equity pressure suggest caution on Asian and commodity-linked exposure. Watch whether China internet strength confirms a broader emerging market bid or fades into the US open. api.agentcanary.ai/api/docs npm i agentcanary-mcp Not financial advice