Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, SPR 349M.
MACRO RADAR · June 12, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 86.2/100 · Composite 47.8
Risk Gauge: 86.2/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 47.8/100 (ELEVATED). Geopolitical risk: 42/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 54/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 86.2/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 47.8/100 (ELEVATED)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 42/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.93T (YoY -2.80%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 280bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11)
- BTC
- $62,833
- ETH
- $1,650
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 54/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $62,833 · ETH: $1,650 · SOL: $65.52 Crypto sentiment: 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.93T (YoY -2.80%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.08T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 280bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.48 (+6.5% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_TIGHTENING, crude 426.5M bbl, SPR 349M.
Key Prices
SPY +0.1% | QQQ +1.3% | VIX -12.5% | TLT +1.0% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -3.9%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ SOXS: -12.5% ▲ SOXL: +12.1% ▲ CPNG: +11.5% ▼ ORCL: -10.8% ▲ UMAC: +9.1% ▲ UEC: +8.5%
Hegemony Snapback
1.5/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4081 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[-] Gold: -2.41σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.96σ [-] Silver: -1.89σ [+] VIX: +1.71σ
US Open Setup
Setup favors US cyclicals into the open with metals and semiconductors leading. Watch for continuation in industrial themes while energy remains pressured on commodity headwinds.