Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
MACRO RADAR · June 11, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 86.2/100 · Composite 49.7
Risk Gauge: 86.2/100 (Critical). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 49.7/100 (ELEVATED). Geopolitical risk: 47/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 86.2/100 (Critical)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 49.7/100 (ELEVATED)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 47/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.93T (YoY -2.80%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 278bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11)
- BTC
- $61,578
- ETH
- $1,635
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $61,578 · ETH: $1,635 · SOL: $64.46 Crypto sentiment: 12 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.93T (YoY -2.80%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.08T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 278bps NORMAL BDRY: $12.47 (+5.2% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
Key Prices
SPY -1.9% | QQQ -3.1% | VIX +11.8% | TLT +0.3% | DXY +0.1% | OIL +4.0%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ SMCI: -17.7% ▼ UEC: -10.1% ▲ SOXS: +8.8% ▼ SOXL: -8.7% ▼ QCOM: -6.7% ▼ ETN: -6.4%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4257 (Y), Oil $96 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [-] Gold: -2.21σ [-] Silver: -1.97σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.96σ [-] 10Y Breakeven Inflation: -1.66σ
US Open Setup
Overnight Asia markets signal continuation of risk-off flows into US open. Watch defensive sector momentum against any tech dip-buying attempts as volatility remains elevated.