Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
MACRO RADAR · June 10, 2026, 03:15 UTC · Regime EXPANSION · Risk 77.3/100 · Composite 46.6
Risk Gauge: 77.3/100 (High). Phase: EXPANSION. Composite Risk: 46.6/100 (ELEVATED). Geopolitical risk: 48/100 (MODERATE). Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Key indicators
- Risk Gauge
- 77.3/100 (High)
- Regime Phase
- EXPANSION
- Composite Risk
- 46.6/100 (ELEVATED)
- Geopolitical Risk
- 48/100 (MODERATE)
- Global CB Liquidity
- $17.96T (YoY -2.83%)
- US M2
- $22.80T (YoY +4.72%)
- HY Credit Spreads
- 276bps (NORMAL)
- Crypto Sentiment
- 9 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11)
- BTC
- $61,277
- ETH
- $1,624
Macro Overview
Top: Middle East / Red Sea 55/100 (ELEVATED, natural_gas bullish).
Crypto
BTC: $61,277 · ETH: $1,624 · SOL: $64.27 Crypto sentiment: 9 (Extreme Fear, 7d avg 11).
Liquidity & Credit
Global CB Liquidity: $17.96T (YoY -2.83%) — fed $6.71T · ecb $7.11T · boj $4.15T US M2: $22.80T (YoY +4.72%) HY Credit Spreads: 276bps NORMAL (composite: CAUTION) BDRY: $12.37 (+9.8% 30d, DOWN — STABLE_SHIPPING). Oil: SUPPLY_GLUT, crude 433.7M bbl, refinery 94.7%, SPR 357M.
Key Prices
SPY -0.1% | QQQ +0.4% | VIX +5.0% | TLT +0.1% | DXY -0.1% | OIL -2.7%
Overnight vs US Close
▼ AAOI: -17.6% ▼ UEC: -17.3% ▼ POET: -16.0% ▼ COHR: -15.1% ▼ UMAC: -14.4% ▼ MRVL: -14.1%
Hegemony Snapback
2/6 — WATCH USD Index 120.08 (R), Gold $4324 (Y), Oil $96 (Y)
Notable Z-scores
[+] VIX: +3.15σ [+] USD Index (broad): +2.21σ [+] 2Y Treasury: +2.06σ [-] 2s10s Curve: -2.00σ [+] Jobless Claims: +1.96σ
US Open Setup
Tech strength persists while defensive positioning emerges selectively. Watch for continued crypto weakness to spill into broader risk assets as volatility remains elevated heading into the US session.